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Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long

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  • Mona Haddad
  • Cosimo Pancaro

Abstract

A policy of managed real undervaluation may have been an important factor behind the success of East Asia’s export-led growth model. But current discussions over the value of China’s currency demonstrate the controversy this kind of policy can generate. Although a managed real undervaluation can enhance domestic competitiveness, it is difficult to sustain—both economically and politically—in the post-crisis environment. We show that a real undervaluation works only for low-income countries, and only in the medium term.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mona Haddad & Cosimo Pancaro, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10178, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:10178
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    2. Brixiova, Zuzana & Ncube, Mthuli, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe: Does the Currency Regime Matter?," IZA Discussion Papers 8398, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake & Keun Lee, 2017. "Differential Impacts of Currency Undervaluation on Growth and Exports in Natural Resource vs. Manufacturing Exporting Countries," Working Papers id:11694, eSocialSciences.
    4. -, 2013. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2013: Three decades of uneven and unstable growth," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1086 edited by Eclac, March.
    5. A. Wondemu Kifle & Potts David, 2016. "Working Paper 240 - The Impact of the Real Exchange Rate Changes on Export Performance in Tanzania and Ethiopia," Working Paper Series 2348, African Development Bank.
    6. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?," MPRA Paper 43358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vikram Nehru, 2013. "Manufacturing in India and Indonesia: performance and policies," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 35-60, April.
    9. Victor Pontines & Richard Pomfret, 2014. "Exchange rate policy and regional trade agreements: a case of conflicted interests?," Chapters,in: A World Trade Organization for the 21st Century, chapter 7, pages 157-181 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Anson, José & Boffa, Mauro & Helble, Matthias, 2014. "A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 471, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    12. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Nasha Ananchotikul & Nuwat Nookhwun & Paiboon Pongpaichet & Songklod Rastapana & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2010. "The Future of Monetary Policy: Roles of Financial Stability and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2010-07, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    14. Augusto de la Torre & Tatiana Didier & Alain Ize & Daniel Lederman & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2015. "Latin America and the Rising South," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 21869.
    15. Juan Marchetti & Michele Ruta & Robert Teh, 2012. "Trade Imbalances and Multilateral Trade Cooperation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4050, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Aleh Mazol, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Imports of Intermediate and Capital Goods and GDP Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 32, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    17. Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake & Keun Lee, 2016. "Differential impacts of currency undervaluation on growth and exports in natural resource vs. manufacturing exporting countries," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-023, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    18. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Can monetary policy drive economic growth? empirical evidence from Tanzania," Working Papers 21122, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    19. Huang, Xiaobing, 2017. "Exchange rate movements and export market dynamics: Evidence from China," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
    21. Nyorekwa, Enock Twinoburyo & Odhiambo, Nicholas Mbaya, 2016. "Monetary policy and economic growth in Kenya:The role of money supply and interest rates," Working Papers 20712, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    22. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    23. Zuzana Brixiova & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "Working Paper - 210 - The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe Does the Currency Regime Matter," Working Paper Series 2146, African Development Bank.
    24. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Stabilization Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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