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Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long

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  • Mona Haddad
  • Cosimo Pancaro

Abstract

A policy of managed real undervaluation may have been an important factor behind the success of East Asia’s export-led growth model. But current discussions over the value of China’s currency demonstrate the controversy this kind of policy can generate. Although a managed real undervaluation can enhance domestic competitiveness, it is difficult to sustain—both economically and politically—in the post-crisis environment. We show that a real undervaluation works only for low-income countries, and only in the medium term.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Other Operational Studies with number 10178.

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Date of creation: Jun 2010
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wboper:10178
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Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Macroeconomic Management Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Stabilization Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
  • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
  • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  1. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 06.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. B. Bosworth & S. M. Collins & Y. Chen, . "Accounting for Difference in Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 115, Brookings Institution International Economics.
  3. William Easterly, 2003. "National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal," Working Papers 27, Center for Global Development.
  4. Arvind Subramanian & Jonathan David Ostry & Simon Johnson, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa; Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  6. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  7. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
  8. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
  9. Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
  10. Alvaro Aguirre & César Calderón, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 316, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
  12. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  13. Korinek, Anton & Serven, Luis, 2010. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation : static losses, dynamic gains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5250, The World Bank.
  14. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
  15. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Enzo Cassino & David Oxley, 2013. "How Does the Exchange Rate Affect the Real Economy? A Literature Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/26, New Zealand Treasury.
  2. Anson, José & Boffa, Mauro & Helble, Matthias, 2014. "A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 471, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  3. repec:bth:wpaper:2010-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Tomanova, Lucie, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Foreign Trade in CEEC," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 267, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
  5. Marchetti, Juan & Ruta, Michele & Teh, Robert, 2012. "Trade imbalances and multilateral trade cooperation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2012-23, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  6. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
  7. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate and Export Growth: Are Services Different?," Working Papers 12/112, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  8. Pomfret, Richard & Pontines, Victor, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?," ADBI Working Papers 436, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  9. Zuzana Brixiová & Mthuli Ncube, 2014. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe: Does the Currency Regime Matter?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1081, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. AfDB AfDB, 2014. "Working Paper - 210 - The Real Exchange Rate and Growth in Zimbabwe Does the Currency Regime Matter," Working Paper Series 2146, African Development Bank.
  11. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

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