IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eec/wpaper/1916.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Searching The Us Fdi Determinants In The Eu: Is There A Euro Effect?

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero

    (University Jaume I and INTECO, Department of Economics, Campus de Riu Sec, E-12080 Castellón (Spain))

  • Sergi Moliner

    (University Jaume I and INTECO, Department of Economics, Campus de Riu Sec, E-12080 Castellón (Spain))

  • Cecilio Tamarit

    (University of València and INTECO, Department of Applied Economics II, Av. dels Tarongers, s/n Eastern Department Building E-46022 Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the potential determinants of US outward FDI with a particular focus on the euro effect during the period 1985-2016. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Our sample includes over 90% of its stock and analyze the effect of the euro not only on American FDI in Europe, but also on the rest of the world. Within Europe, we consider the Euro Area (EA) but also core and peripheral members as well as the EU countries. We conclude from the BMA analysis that US MNCs engage in complex integration strategies which involve both horizontal (HFDI) and vertical (VFDI) motives both at the world and European levels. However, HFDI strategies predominate in EA core countries, whereas VFDI prevails in the EA periph-ery. As for the euro effect, the adoption of the common currency seems to have played an important role in the overall US FDI strategy: the launching of the euro has mainly promoted US HFDI in EU and EA countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Searching The Us Fdi Determinants In The Eu: Is There A Euro Effect?," Working Papers 1916, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    • Handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1916
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repecsrv.uv.es/paper/RePEc/pdf/eec_1916.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    2. Raphaël Chiappini, 2014. "Institutional Determinants of Japanese Outward FDI in the Manufacturing Industry," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-11, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    3. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Bruce A. Blonigen & Ronald B. Davies & Keith Head, 2003. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 980-994, June.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 451-467, April.
    6. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables, 2021. "The theory of endowment, intra-industry and multi-national trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 4, pages 69-94, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Neary, J. Peter, 2009. "Trade costs and foreign direct investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 207-218, March.
    8. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Firms in the European Union," Post-Print hal-00267438, HAL.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8o118937 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Crozet, Matthieu & Mayer, Thierry & Mucchielli, Jean-Louis, 2004. "How do firms agglomerate? A study of FDI in France," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 27-54, January.
    11. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8o118937 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Carril-Caccia, Federico & Pavlova, Elena, 2018. "Foreign direct investment and its drivers: a global and EU perspective," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    14. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 589-630, September.
    15. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 1999. "Exchange Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting FDI," Working Papers 1999-16, CEPII research center.
    16. Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Local Corruption and Global Capital Flows," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 303-354.
    17. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    18. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Koop, Gary & Vicard, Vincent, 2018. "One size does not fit all… panel data: Bayesian model averaging and data poolability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 364-376.
    19. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Karolina Ekholm & Rikard Forslid & James R. Markusen, 2021. "Export-Platform Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 6, pages 111-130, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Laura Alfaro & Andrew Charlton, 2009. "Intra-industry Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2096-2119, December.
    22. Egger, Peter & Winner, Hannes, 2005. "Evidence on corruption as an incentive for foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 932-952, December.
    23. Neumayer, Eric & Spess, Laura, 2005. "Do bilateral investment treaties increase foreign direct investment to developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1567-1585, October.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J. & Eby Konan, Denise & Zhang, Kevin H., 1996. "A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services," Working Paper Series 465, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    26. Camarero, Mariam & Forte, Anabel & Garcia-Donato, Gonzalo & Mendoza, Yurena & Ordoñez, Javier, 2015. "Variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption–growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 207-216.
    27. Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where it Goes? New Evidence From the Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 2003/228, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2004. "Market Potential and the Location of Japanese Investment in the European Union," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 959-972, November.
    29. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    30. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2004. "How different is Eastern Europe? Structure and determinants of location choices by French firms in Eastern and Western Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 280-296, June.
    31. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 2009/202, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Narciso, Alexandre, 2010. "The impact of population ageing on international capital flows," MPRA Paper 26457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
    34. K. Benkovskis & B. Bluhm & E. Bobeica & C. Osbat & S. Zeugner, 2020. "What drives export market shares? It depends! An empirical analysis using Bayesian model averaging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 817-869, August.
    35. Brouwer, Jelle & Paap, Richard & Viaene, Jean-Marie, 2008. "The trade and FDI effects of EMU enlargement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 188-208, March.
    36. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2019. "Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-104.
    37. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    38. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    39. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    40. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    41. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    42. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    43. Yeaple, Stephen Ross, 2003. "The complex integration strategies of multinationals and cross country dependencies in the structure of foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 293-314, August.
    44. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    45. Stephen Ross Yeaple, 2003. "The Role of Skill Endowments in the Structure of U.S. Outward Foreign Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 726-734, August.
    46. Zu Kweon Kim, 2004. "The Impact of the Process of Economic Integration on the Relationships between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Trade: Cases of Japan and U.S. in European Union," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 135-148, September.
    47. Josep Martí & Maite Alguacil & Vicente Orts, 2017. "Location choice of Spanish multinational firms in developing and transition economies," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 319-339, March.
    48. Petroulas, Pavlos, 2007. "The effect of the euro on foreign direct investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1468-1491, August.
    49. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagné & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    50. José de Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2011. "Does the Single Currency Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 553-578, September.
    51. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2002. "Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 694-707, November.
    52. di Giovanni, Julian, 2005. "What drives capital flows? The case of cross-border M&A activity and financial deepening," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 127-149, January.
    53. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-471, June.
    54. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2015. "Robust determinants of OECD FDI in developing countries: Insights from Bayesian model averaging," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1095851-109, December.
    55. Crozet, Matthieu & Mayer, Thierry & Mucchielli, Jean-Louis, 2004. "How do firms agglomerate? A study of FDI in France," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 27-54, January.
    56. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
    57. Christian Daude & Ernesto Stein, 2007. "The Quality Of Institutions And Foreign Direct Investment," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 317-344, November.
    58. repec:bla:kyklos:v:54:y:2001:i:1:p:89-113 is not listed on IDEAS
    59. Hea‐Jung Hyun, 2006. "Quality of institutions and foreign direct investment in developing countries: Causality tests for cross‐country panels," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 103-110.
    60. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
    61. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10192 is not listed on IDEAS
    62. Anabel Forte & Gonzalo Garcia‐Donato & Mark Steel, 2018. "Methods and Tools for Bayesian Variable Selection and Model Averaging in Normal Linear Regression," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 86(2), pages 237-258, August.
    63. Camarero, Mariam & Montolio, Laura & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 326-345.
    64. Lui, Francis T, 1985. "An Equilibrium Queuing Model of Bribery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(4), pages 760-781, August.
    65. Xiaoyun Feng & Faqin Lin & Nicholas C S Sim, 2019. "The effect of language on foreign direct investment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 269-291.
    66. Sondermann, David & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2019. "Did the euro change the nature of FDI flows among member states?," Working Paper Series 2275, European Central Bank.
    67. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10192 is not listed on IDEAS
    68. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Likelihood-Based Estimation of Dynamic Panels With Predetermined Regressors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 451-472, October.
    69. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 881-926, November.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model," Working Papers 2007, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    3. Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "A fresh assessment of the euro effect on outward US FDI," Working Papers 2209, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    5. Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2024. "A Fresh Assessment of the Depth of the “Euro Effect" on US FDI," Single Market Economics Papers WP2024/18, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    6. Camarero, Mariam & Montolio, Laura & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 326-345.
    7. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Determinants of German outward FDI: variable selection using Bayesian statistical," Working Papers 1906, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Which are the long-run determinants of US outward FDI? Evidence using large long-memory panels," Working Papers 2022.08, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    9. Laura Alfaro & Maggie Xiaoyang Chen, 2018. "Transportation cost and the geography of foreign investment," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 12, pages 369-406, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Determinants of FDI for Spanish regions: evidence using stock data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2779-2820, December.
    12. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Explaining German outward FDI in the EU: a reassessment using Bayesian model averaging and GLM estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 487-511, February.
    13. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    14. Maria Borga & Perla Ibarlucea Flores & Monika Sztajerowska, 2020. "Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/03, OECD Publishing.
    15. Antrà s, Pol & Yeaple, Stephen R., 2014. "Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 55-130, Elsevier.
    16. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Alternative Estimators For The Fdi Gravity Model: An Application To German Outward Fdi," Working Papers 1907, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    17. Escobar Gamboa, Octavio Romano, 2009. "IDE entrants, exportations et productivité manufacturière : les différentes performances des régions mexicaines," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/3850 edited by Guillochon, Bernard.
    18. Céline Azémar & Rodolphe Desbordes, 2010. "Short‐run Strategies for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7), pages 928-957, July.
    19. Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang & Moore, Michael O., 2010. "Location decision of heterogeneous multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 188-199, March.
    20. Sunghoon Chung, 2012. "Environmental Regulation and the Pattern of Outward FDI: An Empirical Assessment of the Pollution Haven Hypothesis," Departmental Working Papers 1203, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI determinants; Foreign Direct Investment; US; European Union; Euro area; Bayesian Model Averaging; Variable selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eec:wpaper:1916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vicente Esteve (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvales.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.