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Economic Growth Determinants for European Regions: Is Central and Eastern Europe Different?


  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    () (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Gernot Doppelhofer

    () (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Martin Feldkircher

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)


We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2009. "Economic Growth Determinants for European Regions: Is Central and Eastern Europe Different?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2009:i:3:b:2

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, June.
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    5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. World Bank, 2012. "EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11896, The World Bank.
    3. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.
    4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2010. "Regional Convergence in Europe and the Role of Urban Agglomerations," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 63-78.

    More about this item


    Determinants of inflation; McCallum rule; Phillips curve; Bayesian model averaging; Central and Eastern Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe


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