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Economic Growth Determinants for European Regions: Is Central and Eastern Europe Different?

Listed author(s):
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    ()

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Gernot Doppelhofer

    ()

    (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Martin Feldkircher

    ()

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.

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File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:5ef5413d-9b71-4aa7-93af-9cfbc6892c79/feei_2009_q3_studies_crespo_tcm16-141352.pdf
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Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 22-37

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Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2009:i:3:b:2
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  1. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
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  3. Olivier Parent & James P. Lesage, 2007. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models ," University of Cincinnati, Economics Working Papers Series 2007-02, University of Cincinnati, Department of Economics.
  4. Jesus Crespo-Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2009. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," wiiw Working Papers 57, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Meghir, Costas & Vandenbussche, Jérôme, 2005. "Growth, Distance to Frontier and Composition of Human Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 4860, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Doppelhofer, G. & Cuaresma, J.C., 2007. "Nonlinearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) Approach," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Michael Pfaffermayr, 2007. "Conditional Beta- and Sigma-Convergence in Space: A Maximum Likelihood Approach," Working Papers 2007-17, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  9. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 26, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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  13. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, 06.
  14. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
  15. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
  16. Roberto Basile, 2008. "Regional economic growth in Europe: A semiparametric spatial dependence approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(4), pages 527-544, November.
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  18. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
  19. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
  20. Sterlacchini, Alessandro, 2008. "R&D, higher education and regional growth: Uneven linkages among European regions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6-7), pages 1096-1107, July.
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