IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbfi/y2009i3b2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Growth Determinants for European Regions: Is Central and Eastern Europe Different?

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Gernot Doppelhofer

    (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Martin Feldkircher

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Abstract

We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2009. "Economic Growth Determinants for European Regions: Is Central and Eastern Europe Different?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2009:i:3:b:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:5ef5413d-9b71-4aa7-93af-9cfbc6892c79/feei_2009_q3_studies_crespo_tcm16-141352.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Philippe Aghion & Costas Meghir, 2006. "Growth, distance to frontier and composition of human capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 97-127, June.
    2. James Lesage & Manfred Fischer, 2008. "Spatial Growth Regressions: Model Specification, Estimation and Interpretation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 275-304.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    4. Olivier Parent & James Lesage, 2005. "Bayesian Model Averaging for Spatial Econometric Models," Post-Print hal-00375489, HAL.
    5. P. J. Brown & M. Vannucci & T. Fearn, 1998. "Multivariate Bayesian variable selection and prediction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(3), pages 627-641.
    6. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, June.
    7. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    8. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    9. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    10. Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2009. "Conditional [beta]- and [sigma]-convergence in space: A maximum likelihood approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 63-78, January.
    11. Mikael Lindahl & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1101-1136, December.
    12. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    13. Roberto Basile, 2008. "Regional economic growth in Europe: A semiparametric spatial dependence approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(4), pages 527-544, November.
    14. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    15. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Convergence and the effects of spatial interaction," HWWA Discussion Papers 110, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    16. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 44-67, January.
    17. Sterlacchini, Alessandro, 2008. "R&D, higher education and regional growth: Uneven linkages among European regions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6-7), pages 1096-1107, July.
    18. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    19. Luisa Corrado & Ron Martin & Melvyn Weeks, 2005. "Identifying and Interpreting Regional Convergence Clusters across Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 133-160, March.
    20. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    21. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    22. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    23. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    24. Becker, Sascha O. & Egger, Peter H. & von Ehrlich, Maximilian, 2010. "Going NUTS: The effect of EU Structural Funds on regional performance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 578-590, October.
    25. Manfred Fischer & Claudia Stirböck, 2006. "Pan-European regional income growth and club-convergence," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 40(4), pages 693-721, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Watson, Philip & Deller, Steven, 2017. "Economic diversity, unemployment and the Great Recession," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Giuseppe Di Vita, 2018. "Institutional quality and the growth rates of the Italian regions: The costs of regulatory complexity," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 1057-1081, November.
    3. , Aisdl, 2021. "Factors Determining the Development of Minimum Comparable Areas and Spatial Interaction," OSF Preprints 9e7xz, Center for Open Science.
    4. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2010. "Regional Convergence in Europe and the Role of Urban Agglomerations," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 63-78.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2010:i:3:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Peter Mayerhofer & Matthias Firgo & Stefan Schönfelder, 2015. "Vierter Bericht zur internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Wiens," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60625, April.
    7. World Bank, 2012. "EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds," World Bank Publications - Reports 11896, The World Bank Group.
    8. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 44-67, January.
    2. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Martin Feldkircher, 2013. "Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty And The Speed Of Income Convergence In Europe," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 720-741, June.
    3. Philipp Piribauer, 2016. "Heterogeneity in spatial growth clusters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 659-680, September.
    4. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:160:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Doppelhofer, Gernot & Weeks, Melvyn, 2011. "Robust Growth Determinants," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 3/2011, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    6. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2010:i:3:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    9. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Florian Huber & Philipp Piribauer, 2015. "Growing Together? Projecting Income Growth in Europe at the Regional Level," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp198, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Jing Chen, 2018. "Economic Diversity and Regional Economic Performance: A Methodological Concern from Model Uncertainty," Working Papers Working Paper 2018-05, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    11. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    12. Andros Kourtellos, 2011. "Modeling parameter heterogeneity in cross-country regression models," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 11-2011, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    13. Jesus regstdpo-Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Determinants of Regional Economic Growth by Quantile," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 809-826.
    14. Cohen-Cole, Ethan B. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2012. "Nonlinearities in growth: From evidence to policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 42-58.
    15. Manfred M. Fischer & James P. LeSage, 2012. "A Bayesian approach to identifying and interpreting regional convergence clubs in Europe," ERSA conference papers ersa12p217, European Regional Science Association.
    16. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Empirics of Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    18. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    19. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Ming Tan, 2013. "Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility," Working Paper series 52_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    20. Gilles Dufrenot & Valerie Mignon & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 731-761, December.
    21. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    22. Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinants of inflation; McCallum rule; Phillips curve; Bayesian model averaging; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2009:i:3:b:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elisabeth Beckmann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.