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Non-Gaussian dynamic Bayesian modelling for panel data

  • Juarez, Miguel A.
  • Steel, Mark F. J.

A first order autoregressive non-Gaussian model for analysing panel data is proposed. The main feature is that the model is able to accommodate fat tails and also skewness, thus allowing for outliers and asymmetries. The modelling approach is to gain sufficient flexibility, without sacrificing interpretability and computational ease. The model incorporates individual effects and we pay specific attention to the elicitation of the prior. As the prior structure chosen is not proper, we derive conditions for the existence of the posterior. By considering a model with individual dynamic parameters we are also able to formally test whether the dynamic behaviour is common to all units in the panel. The methodology is illustrated with two applications involving earnings data and one on growth of countries.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/450/1/MPRA_paper_450.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 450.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:450
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  2. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:55-56:p:16 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Michael Lee & Ritchard Longmire & Laszlo Matyas & Mark Harris, 1998. "Growth convergence: some panel data evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 907-912.
  4. Giuseppe Arbia & Gianfranco Piras, 2005. "Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions using panel data models extended to spatial autocorrelation effects," ISAE Working Papers 51, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  5. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
  6. Tsung-Wu Ho, 2006. "Income Thresholds And Growth Convergence: A Panel Data Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(2), pages 170-189, 03.
  7. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "A Pair-wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Nandram, Balgobin & Petruccelli, Joseph D, 1997. "A Bayesian Analysis of Autoregressive Time Series Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 328-34, July.
  9. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew "t"-distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389.
  10. Canova, Fabio, 2001. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita : a predictive density approach," HWWA Discussion Papers 139, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  11. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August.
  12. Durlauf, S.M. & Johnson, P.A., 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behavior," Working papers 9419r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  13. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2008. "Model-Based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 78-89, January.
  14. Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
  15. Guillaume Gaulier & Christophe Hurlin & Philippe Jean-Pierre, 1999. "Testing Convergence: A Panel Data Approach," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56, pages 411-427.
  16. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
  17. Fern ndez, Carmen & Steel, Mark F.J., 2000. "Bayesian Regression Analysis With Scale Mixtures Of Normals," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 80-101, February.
  18. Fernandez, Carmen & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "On the use of panel data in stochastic frontier models with improper priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 169-193, July.
  19. Cheng Hsiao & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 1233, CESifo Group Munich.
  20. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  23. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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