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Non-Gaussian dynamic Bayesian modelling for panel data

  • Juarez, Miguel A.
  • Steel, Mark F. J.

A first order autoregressive non-Gaussian model for analysing panel data is proposed. The main feature is that the model is able to accommodate fat tails and also skewness, thus allowing for outliers and asymmetries. The modelling approach is to gain sufficient flexibility, without sacrificing interpretability and computational ease. The model incorporates individual effects and we pay specific attention to the elicitation of the prior. As the prior structure chosen is not proper, we derive conditions for the existence of the posterior. By considering a model with individual dynamic parameters we are also able to formally test whether the dynamic behaviour is common to all units in the panel. The methodology is illustrated with two applications involving earnings data and one on growth of countries.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/450/1/MPRA_paper_450.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 450.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:450
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  1. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Giuseppe Arbia & Gianfranco Piras, 2005. "Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions using panel data models extended to spatial autocorrelation effects," ISAE Working Papers 51, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  3. repec:att:wimass:9419 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec..
  6. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  7. Fabio Canova, 1997. "Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach," Economics Working Papers 404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 1999.
  8. Cheng Hsiao & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," IEPR Working Papers 04.2, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  9. Nandram, Balgobin & Petruccelli, Joseph D, 1997. "A Bayesian Analysis of Autoregressive Time Series Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 328-34, July.
  10. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  11. Fern ndez, Carmen & Steel, Mark F.J., 2000. "Bayesian Regression Analysis With Scale Mixtures Of Normals," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 80-101, February.
  12. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
  13. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  14. Fernandez, Carmen & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "On the use of panel data in stochastic frontier models with improper priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 169-193, July.
  15. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Do Economies Converge? Evidence from a Panel of U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 384-88, August.
  16. Lee, M. & Longmire, R. & Matyas, L. & Harris, M., 1996. "Growth Convergence: Some Panel Data Evidence," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  17. repec:dgr:kubcen:199658 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Tsung-Wu Ho, 2006. "Income Thresholds And Growth Convergence: A Panel Data Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(2), pages 170-189, 03.
  19. Liu, Lon-Mu & Tiao, George C., 1980. "Random coefficient first-order autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 305-325, August.
  20. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2008. "Model-Based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 78-89, January.
  21. Adelchi Azzalini & Antonella Capitanio, 2003. "Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew "t"-distribution," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(2), pages 367-389.
  22. Guillaume GAULIER & Christophe HURLIN & Philippe JEAN-PIERRE, 1999. "Testing Convergence: A Panel Data Approach," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 55-56, pages 411-427.
  23. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
  24. Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
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