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Real-time rational expectations and indeterminacy

  • Shea, Paul

This paper uses the technique of Lubik and Schorfheide [Lubik, T., Schorfheide, F., 2004. Testing for indeterminacy: an application to U.S. monetary policy. The American Economic Review 94 (1), 190-217] to test for indeterminacy in a New Keynesian Model. Using real-time, instead of revised data on the output gap, the results suggest indeterminacy both before 1979 and after 1982.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 99 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 530-533

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:99:y:2008:i:3:p:530-533
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  1. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2003. "On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy," Working Paper Series 0277, European Central Bank.
  2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
  3. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  4. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," UCLA Economics Working Papers 722, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 0115, European Central Bank.
  6. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
  8. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi GalĂ­ & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  11. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003.
  12. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
  13. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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