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Some Observations on the Great Depression in Germany

  • Weder, Mark

This Paper evaluates the role of the demand side during the Great Depression in Germany. From Euler equation residuals we are able to identify a series of contractionary demand shocks that pounded the German economy from 1929-32. We apply the detrimental preference innovations to a dynamic general equilibrium model and find that size and order of shocks can generate a pattern that can explain the lion’s share of the decline in economic activity. The artificial economy also predicts a swift recovery after 1932, thereby questioning significant effects of Nazi economic policy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3716.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3716
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  13. Holland, Allison & Scott, Andrew, 1998. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1067-92, July.
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  20. Wen, Yi, 2002. "Fickle Consumers versus Random Technology: Explaining Domestic and International Comovements," Working Papers 02-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
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  24. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  25. Salyer, Kevin D., 1995. "The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 215-242, February.
  26. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-24.
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  28. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  29. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Robert E. Hall, 1987. "Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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