IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linear and threshold forecasts of output and inflation using stock and housing prices


  • Greg Tkacz

    (Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0G9)

  • Carolyn Wilkins

    (Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0G9)


This study examines whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. Previous authors have generally found that the information content of asset prices in general, and equity and housing prices in particular, are unreliable in that they do not systematically predict future economic activity or inflation. However, earlier studies relied on simple linear relationships that would fail to pick up the potential nonlinear effects of asset price misalignments. Our results suggest that housing prices are useful for predicting GDP growth, even within a linear context. Meanwhile, both stock and housing prices can improve inflation forecasts, especially when using a threshold specification. These improvements in forecast performance are relative to the information contained in Phillips-curve type indicators for inflation and IS-curve type indicators for GDP growth. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Tkacz & Carolyn Wilkins, 2008. "Linear and threshold forecasts of output and inflation using stock and housing prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 131-151.
  • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:2:p:131-151 DOI: 10.1002/for.1046

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    2. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    3. Tkacz, Greg, 2004. "Inflation changes, yield spreads, and threshold effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-199.
    4. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    5. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    6. DETKEN Carsten & SMETS Frank, "undated". "Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy," EcoMod2003 330700042, EcoMod.
    7. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    8. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    9. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
    10. West, Kenneth D., 2001. "Encompassing tests when no model is encompassing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 287-308, November.
    11. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
    12. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    14. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets; A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    16. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    17. Coletti, D. & Hunt, B. & Rose, D. & Tetlow, R., 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model. Part 3 , the Dynamic Model : QPM," Technical Reports 75, Bank of Canada.
    18. West, Kenneth D, 2001. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing When Forecasts Depend on Estimated Regression Parameters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 29-33, January.
    19. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    20. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    21. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
    22. Claudio Borio & William R. White, 2003. "Whither monetary and financial stability : the implications of evolving policy regimes," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 131-211.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    2. Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Ferreira, Roberto Tatiwa & Castelar, Ivan, 2011. "Modelos lineares e não lineares da curva de Phillips para previsão da taxa de Inflação no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(3), September.
    3. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:64-91 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Huang, MeiChi & Chiang, Hsiu-Hsuan, 2017. "An early alarm system for housing bubbles," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 34-49.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:2:p:131-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.