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A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Barros Luís, Jorge
  • Cassola, Nuno

Abstract

In this paper we show that a two-factor constant volatility model provides an adequate description of the dynamics and shape of the German term structure of interest rates from 1972 up to 1998. The model also provides reasonable estimates of the volatility and term premium curves. Following the conjecture that the two factors driving the German term structure of interest rates represent the H[-DQWH real interest rate and the expected inflation rate, the identification of one factor with expected inflation is discussed. Our estimates are obtained using a Kalman filter and a maximum likelihood procedure including in the measurement equation both the yields and their volatilities JEL Classification: E43, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Barros Luís, Jorge & Cassola, Nuno, 2001. "A two-factor model of the German term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:200146
    Note: 334845
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Vlaar, 2007. "Term Structure Modeling for Pension Funds:What to do in Practice?," DNB Working Papers 123, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Speck, Christian, 2023. "Pricing the Bund term structure with linear regressions – without an observable short rate," Discussion Papers 08/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. De Rossi, Giuliano, 2004. "Kalman filtering of consistent forward rate curves: a tool to estimate and model dynamically the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 277-308, March.
    4. Durré, Alain & Evjen, Snorre & Pilegaard, Rasmus, 2003. "Estimating risk premia in money market rates," Working Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    5. Halberstadt, Arne & Stapf, Jelena, 2012. "An affine multifactor model with macro factors for the German term structure: Changing results during the recent crises," Discussion Papers 25/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Lemke, Wolfgang, 2008. "An affine macro-finance term structure model for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 41-69, March.
    7. Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2006. "A Factor Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Risk Premium Estimation for Latvia's Money Market," Working Papers 2006/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Fendel, Ralf, 2004. "Towards a Joint Characterization of Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,24, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    10. Bao, Jianhai & Yuan, Chenggui, 2013. "Long-term behavior of stochastic interest rate models with jumps and memory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 266-272.
    11. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    12. Fendel, Ralf, 2008. "A Joint Characterization of German Monetary Policy and the Dynamics of the German Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 4(01-2), pages 1-19.
    13. Wolfgang Lemke & Deutsche Bundesbank, 2006. "Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-28344-7, March.
    14. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    15. Nymand-Andersen, Per, 2018. "Yield curve modelling and a conceptual framework for estimating yield curves: evidence from the European Central Bank’s yield curves," Statistics Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.
    16. repec:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:163-187 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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