The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan
Many studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread \the difference between long- and short-term interest rates \ has the information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to the monetary policy or not using the Japanese monthly data with consideration for structural changes. Results of structural change tests show that the term spread has the predictive ability for the future economic activity from 1982:4 to 1997:8. Decomposing the term spread into three parts; one is explained by past monetary policy shocks, another is explained by expected future call rates and the other is the remaining part, we find that all three parts are significantly related to the future economic growth rate. Hence, we find that the monetary policy play an important role for the LIPTS.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||May 2013|
|Date of revision:||Jul 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/e_HP/e_g_shiryo.html|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
- Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000.
"Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
- John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 1999. "Testing For Asymmetry In The Link Between The Yield Spread And Output In The G-7 Countries," Departmental Working Papers 1999-02, McGill University, Department of Economics.
- Kurozumi, Eiji & Tuvaandorj, Purevdorj, 2011.
"Model selection criteria in multivariate models with multiple structural changes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 218-238, October.
- Eiji Kurozumi & Purevdorj Tuvaandorj, 2010. "Model Selection Criteria in Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-144, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989.
"The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity,"
8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008.
"Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
- Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 0802, European Central Bank.
- Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005.
"Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions,"
Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, 03.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 2002. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 376-92, May.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998.
"Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
- Bernard, Henri J & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements.
- Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
- Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
- Miyao, Ryuzo, 2000. "The Role of Monetary Policy in Japan: A Break in the 1990s?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 366-384, December.
- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
- Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, 07.
- Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
- Robert D. Laurent, 1988. "An interest rate-based indicator of monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Atsuko SUZUKI)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.