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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia

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  • Luis E Arango
  • Luz Adriana Flórez
  • Angélica M Arosemena

Abstract

This article tests the hypothesis that the term structure of interest rates contains information about future economic activity in Colombia. According to the multilogit approach used to verify the hypothesis that an increase in the spread of interest rate

Suggested Citation

  • Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:42:y:2005:i:125:p:79-101
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2017. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del Gobierno colombiano," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 78, February.
    2. Diego Agudelo Rueda & Mónica Arango Arango, 2008. "La curva de rendimientos a plazo y las expectativas de tasas de interés en el mercado de renta fija en Colombia, 2002-2007," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, June.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas de actividad económica en Colombia y estructura a plazo: un poco más de evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(47), pages 126-160, December.
    4. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007.
    6. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estructura a Plazo; Spread de Tasas de Interés; Diferencial de Inflación; Expectativas de Actividad Económica; Logit Ordenados;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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