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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia

  • Luis E Arango
  • Luz Adriana Flórez
  • Angélica M Arosemena

This article tests the hypothesis that the term structure of interest rates contains information about future economic activity in Colombia. According to the multilogit approach used to verify the hypothesis that an increase in the spread of interest rate

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Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2005)
Issue (Month): 125 ()
Pages: 79-101

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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:42:y:2005:i:125:p:79-101
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  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A View Throught Non- Linear Models," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002691, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  7. Richard V. Burkhauser & Kenneth A. Couch & David C. Wittenburg, 2000. "Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 16-40, July.
  8. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
  9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002558, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
  11. William F. Maloney & Jairo Nunez Mendez, 2003. "Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 9800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas De Actividad Económica En Colombia Y Estructura A Plazo: Un Poco Más De Evidencia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  13. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
  14. Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-93, February.
  15. David Card & Alan B. Krueger, 1993. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," NBER Working Papers 4509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  17. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  18. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
  19. Alida Castillo Freeman & Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "Minimum Wages in Puerto Rico: Textbook Case of a Wage Floor?," NBER Working Papers 3759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-43, May.
  21. Donald Robertson & James Symons, 1991. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," CEP Discussion Papers dp0044, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  22. Marcelo Neri & Gustavo Gonzaga & José Márcio Camargo, 1998. "Efeitos informais do salário mínimo e pobreza," Textos para discussão 393, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  23. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
  24. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  25. Freeman, Richard B, 1996. "The Minimum Wage as a Redistributive Tool," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 639-49, May.
  26. Johnson, Christian A, 2002. "Una aplicación del modelo de cambio de régimen para el crecimiento y la evolución del tipo de cambio nominal en Chile: 1987-2001," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(273), pages 65-94, enero-mar.
  27. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Catherine Bonser-Neal & Timothy R. Morley, 1997. "Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 37-53.
  29. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1997. "Efficiency Wage and the Family: An Explanation for the Impact of the Agricultural Minimum Wage in Morocco," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 369-82.
  30. Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
  31. Neil Arnwine, 2004. "Fisher Equation and Output Growth," Working Papers 0408, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  32. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
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