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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia

  • Luis E Arango
  • Luz Adriana Flórez
  • Angélica M Arosemena

This article tests the hypothesis that the term structure of interest rates contains information about future economic activity in Colombia. According to the multilogit approach used to verify the hypothesis that an increase in the spread of interest rate

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Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2005)
Issue (Month): 125 ()
Pages: 79-101

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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:42:y:2005:i:125:p:79-101
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  1. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, . "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Time-Series Minimum-Wage Studies: A Meta-analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 238-43, May.
  5. Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, . "Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia," Borradores de Economia 302, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Catherine Bonser-Neal & Timothy R. Morley, 1997. "Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 37-53.
  8. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
  9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Jun).
  10. William F. Maloney & Jairo Nunez Mendez, 2003. "Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 9800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Expansions and Contractions in Some Latin American Countries: A view Throught Non-Linear Models," Borradores de Economia 186, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Marcelo Neri & Gustavo Gonzaga & José Márcio Camargo, 1998. "Efeitos informais do salário mínimo e pobreza," Textos para discussão 393, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  13. Freeman, Richard B, 1996. "The Minimum Wage as a Redistributive Tool," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 639-49, May.
  14. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
  15. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  16. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-89, April-Jun.
  17. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  18. Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "The Relation between the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Canadian Economic Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 169-93, February.
  19. Alida Castillo Freeman & Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "Minimum Wages in Puerto Rico: Textbook Case of a Wage Floor?," NBER Working Papers 3759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
  21. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
  22. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1997. "Efficiency Wage and the Family: An Explanation for the Impact of the Agricultural Minimum Wage in Morocco," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3), pages 369-82.
  23. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003138, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  24. David Card & Alan B. Krueger, 1993. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," NBER Working Papers 4509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment with Segmented Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 4769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 84, Central Bank of Chile.
  27. Richard V. Burkhauser & Kenneth A. Couch & David C. Wittenburg, 2000. "Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 16-40, July.
  28. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Johnson, Christian A, 2002. "Una aplicación del modelo de cambio de régimen para el crecimiento y la evolución del tipo de cambio nominal en Chile: 1987-2001," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(273), pages 65-94, enero-mar.
  30. Neil Arnwine, 2004. "Fisher Equation and Output Growth," Working Papers 0408, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  31. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  32. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
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