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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • María Angélica Arosemena

    ()

La evidencia empírica encontrada al explotar la ecuación de Fisher y la hipótesis de expectativas sugiere que los spreads de tasas de interés entre 12 y 24 meses y entre 6 y 12 meses contienen información que contribuye a predecir las expectativas de inflación total y de inflación núcleo. La relación entre los diferenciales de inflación y los spreads de tasas de interés resultó ser positiva: cuanto mayor es el diferencial mayor es la expectativa de inflación futura.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 264.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:264
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  1. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
  2. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  4. Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1988. " The Predictive Power of the Term Structure during Recent Monetary Regimes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 339-56, June.
  5. Camero G., Eduardo & Castellanos, Sara, 2002. "¿Qué información acerca de expectativas de inflación contiene la estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México?," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(275), pages 327-353, julio-sep.
  6. Christopher Ragan, . "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 95-1, Bank of Canada.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
  9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003138, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando melo & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, . "Estimación de la Estructura a Plazo de las Tasas de Interés en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 196, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada.
  12. Robertson, Donald, 1992. "Term Structure Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1083-93, September.
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