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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia

Author

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • María Angélica Arosemena

Abstract

La evidencia empírica encontrada al explotar la ecuación de Fisher y la hipótesis de expectativas sugiere que los spreads de tasas de interés entre 12 y 24 meses y entre 6 y 12 meses contienen información que contribuye a predecir las expectativas de inflación total y de inflación núcleo. La relación entre los diferenciales de inflación y los spreads de tasas de interés resultó ser positiva: cuanto mayor es el diferencial mayor es la expectativa de inflación futura.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, 2003. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:264
    DOI: 10.32468/be.264
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Staff Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada.
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    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de Literatura," Borradores de Economia 3138, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2003. "Estimación de la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 33(1), pages 51-76, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
    2. Karim Parra, 2010. "Factores determinantes del margen entre la deuda corporativa y la deuda pública en Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, November.
    3. Arango, Luis Eduardo & Flórez, Luz Adriana, 2008. "Tramo corto de la curva de rendimientos, cambio de régimen inflacionario y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(297), pages 183-210, enero-mar.
    4. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    5. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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