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Tramo Corto de la Curva de Rendimientos, Cambio de Régimen Inflacionario y Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Luz Adriana Flórez

Abstract

La consideración de la prima de riesgo de inflación en la ecuación de Fisher y los cambios de régimen inflacionario en Colombia durante los últimos años nos permiten examinar la hipótesis de linealidad para los diferenciales esperados de inflación entre 6 y 12 meses adelante construidos suponiendo cuatro mecanismos de formación de expectativas sobre la inflación total futura: expectativas racionales, autorregresivas, estáticas y adaptativas. El primero de ellos se utiliza también para tres definiciones de inflación básica corrientemente empleadas por el Banco de la República. Se emplean dos conjuntos de información para examinar la hipótesis de la existencia del efecto Fisher: el IRTES y la curva cero cupón. Solamente para la inflación total y dos definiciones de inflación básica se pudo rechazar la hipótesis de linealidad. Siempre que se usa la IRTES los resultados son los que predice la teoría en signo y significancia. El contenido informativo del spread de tasas de interés es sensible al conjunto de información utilizado para construir y al mecanismo de expectativas empleado.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2005. "Tramo Corto de la Curva de Rendimientos, Cambio de Régimen Inflacionario y Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 360, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:360
    DOI: 10.32468/be.360
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Staff Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada.
    2. Robert W. Dimand, 1999. "Irving Fisher and the Fisher Relation: Setting the Record Straight," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 744-750, May.
    3. Camero G., Eduardo & Castellanos, Sara, 2002. "¿Qué información acerca de expectativas de inflación contiene la estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México?," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(275), pages 327-353, julio-sep.
    4. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
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    10. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas De Actividad Económica En Colombia Y Estructura A Plazo: Un Poco Más De Evidencia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(47), pages 126-160, December.
    11. Luis Eduardo Arango & María Angélica Arosemena, 2003. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 264, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Langebaek R. & Eliana González Molano, 2007. "Inflación Y Precios Relativos En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 459, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.
    4. Freddy H. CASTRO, 2012. "Senales de política monetaria y movimientos en la estructura a plazo de la tasa de interés en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 9908, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estructura a plazo; Tasas de Interés; Ecuación de Fisher; Prima de Riesgo; Regímenes Inflacionarios.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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