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Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio

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  • Patricio Rojas
  • Eduardo López
  • Susana Jiménez

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine the sources of Chilean growth in the 1960-96 period. Particularly, we seek to quantify the contribution of increased trade on growth. We also estimate potential output for the Chilean economy in the aforementioned period. The main results are that the Chilean economy has grown at an annual rate of 3,9% between 1960 and 1996. Although the contributions of each factor to growth have changed during these 37 years, on average, 1,6% of growth is explained by capital and 3,9% by labor. The contribution of trade is only significative in the eighties, consisting of approximately 1,5 percentage points for the 1986-96 period. The potential growth rate has been 6,5% during the nineties, increasing from 6,0% in 1990 to 7,0% in 1996. Hence, the economy has evolved around the productive frontier. Medium term projections show that with the actual levels of domestic savings, the continuity of growth at 7,0% annual rates will require superior levels of foreign saving than what is actually available, or alternatively, policies that promote saving or factor productivity growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio Rojas & Eduardo López & Susana Jiménez, 1997. "Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:24
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo Le Fort & Sergio Lehmann, 2000. "El Encaje, los Flujos de Capitales y el Gasto: Una Evaluación empírica," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 64, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Gabriel Contreras & Pablo García, 2002. "Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 15, pages 523-554 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Claudio Candia & Medardo Aguirre & Natalia Correa & María J. Herrera, 2016. "La productividad total de factores en el sector manufacturero chileno," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 18(35), pages 229-255, July-Dece.
    4. J. Rodrigo Fuentes, 2011. "Una Mirada Desagregada del Deterioro de la Productividad en Chile: ¿Existe un Cambio Estructural?," Documentos de Trabajo 401, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..

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