IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy

  • Gabriela Contreras M
  • Pablo García S

Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, the measurement of these variables is plagued with difficulties. In this paper we propose two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. We compare the difficulties in using each methodology, and we use them to construct measures of the output gap and potential growth for Chile

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Claudio Sepulveda)

Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 165.

in new window

Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:165
Contact details of provider: Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Rómulo A.Chumacero & Francisco A.Gallego, 2002. "Trends and cycles in real-time," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2 Year 20), pages 211-229, December.
  2. Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Pablo S. García & Luis Oscar Herrera & Rodrigo Valdés, 2001. "New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 125, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Patricio Rojas & Eduardo López & Susana Jiménez, 1997. "Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.