Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy
Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, measuring these variables is no easy task. This paper proposes two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factorproductivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. Finally, a compared analysis is made of the difficulties of each methodology, using it to construct output gap and potential growth measures for Chile.
Volume (Year): 5 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
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- Rómulo A. Chumacero & Francisco A. Gallego, 2001.
"Trends and Cycles in Real-Time,"
Working Papers Central Bank of Chile
130, Central Bank of Chile.
- Pablo García & Luis Óscar Herrera & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2002.
"New Frontiers for Monetary Policy in Chile,"
Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,
in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 15, pages 627-649
Central Bank of Chile.
- Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
- Patricio Rojas & Eduardo López & Susana Jiménez, 1997. "Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
- Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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