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How do changes in monetary policy affect bank lending? An analysis of Austrian bank data

  • Sylvia Kaufmann

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division, P.O. Box 61, A-1010 Vienna, Austria)

  • Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter

    (Johannes Kepler Universität Linz, Department of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, Altenberger Strasse 69, A-4040 Linz, Austria)

Using a panel of Austrian bank data we show that the lending decisions of the smallest banks are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and that for all banks, sensitivity changes over time. We propose to estimate the groups of banks that display similar lending reactions by means of a group indicator which, after estimation, indicates each bank's classification. Additionally, we estimate a state indicator that indicates the periods during which the lending reaction differs from what we normally observe. Bayesian methods are used for estimation; a sensitivity analysis and a forecast evaluation confirm our model choice. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.830
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2006-v21.3/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 275-305

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:21:y:2006:i:3:p:275-305
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  1. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luca Flabbi, 1999. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Banks' Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 7231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. G.J. De Bondt, 1999. "Banks and monetary transmission in Europe: empirical evidence," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 149-168.
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  4. G.J. De Bondt, 1999. "Banks and monetary transmission in Europe: empirical evidence," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(209), pages 149-168.
  5. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 918-937, December.
  6. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, June.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
  9. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Asea, Patrick K. & Blomberg, Brock, 1998. "Lending cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 89-128.
  11. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2008. "Model-Based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 78-89, January.
  12. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
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