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Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States

  • Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais

    (UFRGS/FIERGS)

  • Marcelo Savino Portugal

    (UFRGS)

The present paper applies the Markov switching model with the aim of checking two industrial production features of six major Brazilian states. Firstly, we try to determine the date of business cycles and, soon afterwards, we verify the existence or not of an unobservable component that is common to all series from 1980 to 2001. The characteristics of this comovement are checked by multivariate models. The results from the univariate estimates allow us to infer about the existence of a similar behavior between the industrial production of the southeastern states and that observed in the southern states. The multivariate model efficiently captures the cyclic behavior of industrial production when used regionally, thus revealing a dynamics for growth and recession periods, which differs between these two regions

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number e75.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:e75
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