Forecasting Brazilian output in the presence of breaks: a comparison of linear and nonlinear models
This paper compares the forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models under the presence of structural breaks for the Brazilian real GDP growth. The Markov-switching models proposed by Hamilton (1989) and its generalized version proposed by Lam (1991) are applied to quarterly GDP from 1975:1 to 2000:2 allowing for breaks at the Collor Plans. The probabilities of recessions are used to analyze the Brazilian business cycle. The ability of each model in forecasting out-of-sample the growth rates of GDP is examined. The forecasting ability of the two models is also compared with linear specifications. The authors find that nonlinear models display the best forecasting performance and that specifications including the presence of structural breaks are important in obtaining a representation of the Brazilian business cycle.
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- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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"This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2000
132, Society for Computational Economics.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Knowing the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n12, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:56:n:1:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
- Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
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