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Testing for Regime Switching in Singaporean Business Cycles


  • Robert Breunig


  • Alison Stegman



We examine a Markov Switching model of Singaporean GDP using a combination of formal moment-based tests and informal graphical tests. The tests confirm that the Markov Switching model fits the data better than a linear, autoregressive alternative. The methods are extended to allow us to identify precisely which features of the data are better captured by the non-linear model. The methods described here allow model selection to be related to the intended use of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Breunig & Alison Stegman, 2003. "Testing for Regime Switching in Singaporean Business Cycles," Departmental Working Papers 2003-20, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2003-20

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355643, March.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    4. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
    5. Robert Breunig & Serinah Najarian & Adrian Pagan, 2003. "Specification Testing of Markov Switching Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 703-725, December.
    6. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    7. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, 2005. "Depressions In The Colombian Economic Growth During The Xx Century:A Markov Switching Regime Model," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002274, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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    Markov Switching Models; Specification Testing; Nonparametric Estimation; Moment Tests;

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