IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/0029.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro

Author

Listed:
  • Badarau-Semenescu, Cristina

    (Laboratoire d’Économie d’Orléans, Faculté de Droit, d’Économie et de Gestion)

  • Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane

    (Laboratoire d’Économie d’Orléans, Faculté de Droit, d’Économie et de Gestion)

Abstract

This paper provides a descriptive analysis of macroeconomic data in the euro area and uses a SVAR approach to study the transmission of the fiscal and monetary policy in this region. The results suggest that the monetary policy has played an important role since 2000, both for the inflation and output stabilization, having a sustained counter-cyclical behavior in the euro area. If, at aggregate level, the fiscal policy also appears to have supported the output stabilization (especially after 2003), significant differences appear at the national level, casting doubt on the effectiveness of budgetary policy design in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The study on the transmission of shocks within the area confirms, in a certain extent, the complementary actions of the monetary policy and of the national fiscal policies. It also underlines the heterogeneity of the transmission of shocks at the national level, which is a proof of still persistent structural asymmetries in this area. Résumé : Cet article propose une analyse descriptive des données macroéconomiques dans la zone euro et une étude de la transmission des politiques monétaire et budgétaire à travers une analyse SVAR. Les résultats suggèrent que, depuis la création de la zone euro, la politique monétaire a joué un rôle important aussi bien pour la stabilisation de l’inflation et de l’activité réelle, en ayant un comportement contracyclique soutenu. Au niveau agrégé, la politique budgétaire semble aussi avoir favorisé la stabilisation de l’activité réelle par des actions contracycliques (surtout après 2003). Cependant, des divergences importantes apparaissent au niveau national, mettant en cause l’efficacité de la gestion budgétaire dans l’Union économique et monétaire (UEM). L’étude de la transmission des différents chocs à l’intérieur de la zone confirme l’idée d’une certaine complémentarité entre politique monétaire commune et politiques budgétaires nationales. Elle met aussi en exergue l’hétérogénéité de la transmission des chocs au niveau national, preuve de la présence d’asymétries structurelles qui persistent dans cette région.

Suggested Citation

  • Badarau-Semenescu, Cristina & Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane, 2010. "Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(1), pages 35-77, mars.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.erudit.org/revue/ae/2010/v86/n1/045554ar.html
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Alain DeSerres & Alain Guay, 1995. "Selection of the Truncation Lag in Structural VARs (or VECMs) with Long-Run Restrictions," Econometrics 9510001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    6. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, April.
    7. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    8. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    9. Bruneau, Catherine & De Bandt, Olivier, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 959-985, September.
    10. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2, European Central Bank.
    11. Gert Wehinger, 2000. "Causes of Inflation in Europe, the United States and Japan: Some Lessons for Maintaining Price Stability in the EMU from a Structural VAR Approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 83-107, March.
    12. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2010. "Cointegration, long-run structural modelling and weak exogeneity: Two models of the UK economy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 108-116, September.
    13. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
    14. Jondeau, Eric & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2008. "Testing heterogeneity within the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 192-196, April.
    15. Parhizgari, A.M. & Pavlova, I., 2007. "Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 616-636, December.
    16. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    17. repec:adr:anecst:y:2005:i:77:p:09 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.
    19. Gerlach, Stefan & Yiu, Matthew S., 2004. "Estimating output gaps in Asia: A cross-country study," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-136, March.
    20. Michael Ehrmann, 2000. "Comparing monetary policy transmission across European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 58-83, March.
    21. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
    22. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2007. "Comment expliquer les disparités économiques dans l'UEM ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 315-352.
    23. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    24. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642.
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5284 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    27. Stefan Gerlach & Frank Smets, 1995. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 countries," BIS Working Papers 26, Bank for International Settlements.
    28. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5284 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Laurenceson, James & Rodgers, Danielle, 2010. "China's macroeconomic volatility -- How important is the business cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 324-333, June.
    30. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.
    31. Li, Kui-Wai & Kwok, Ming-Lok, 2009. "Output volatility of five crisis-affected East Asia economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 172-182, March.
    32. Mise, Emi & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Newbold, Paul, 2005. "On suboptimality of the Hodrick-Prescott filter at time series endpoints," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 53-67, March.
    33. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3161 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
    35. Harvey, Andrew C. & Delle Monache, Davide, 2009. "Computing the mean square error of unobserved components extracted by misspecified time series models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 283-295, February.
    36. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2006. "Has the transmission mechanism of European monetary policy changed in the run-up to EMU?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 737-776, April.
    37. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    38. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    39. Tan, Hao & Mathews, John A., 2010. "Identification and analysis of industry cycles," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 454-462, May.
    40. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Benoît Mojon & Julian Morgan, 2003. "New Macroeconomic Evidence on Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 720-730, 04/05.
    41. Srinivasan, Naveen & Jain, Sumit & Ramachandran, M., 2009. "Monetary policy and the behaviour of inflation in India: Is there a need for institutional reform?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-24, January.
    42. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dragan Tevdovski & Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev, 2019. "The effects of macroeconomic policies under fixed exchange rates: A Bayesian VAR analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2138-2160, January.
    2. BIKAI, J. Landry & KENKOUO, Guy Albert, 2015. "Analysis and evaluation of the Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the CEMAC: A SVAR and SPVAR Approaches," MPRA Paper 78227, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry & Gobbin, Niko, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area: evidence from a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(5-6), pages 609-638.
    4. Rahaman, Ataur & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2021. "The effects of fiscal policy shocks in Bangladesh: An agnostic identification procedure," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 626-644.
    5. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    6. Mahmood-ul-Hasan Khan, 2008. "Short Run Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Monetary Policy: Interpreting Macroeconomic Dynamics in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 1-30.
    7. Don Bredin & Gerard O'Reilly, 2004. "An analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 49-58.
    8. Goran Petrevski & Jane Bogoev & Dragan Tevdovski, 2016. "Fiscal and monetary policy effects in three South Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 415-441, March.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renée, 2009. "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1147-1160, November.
    10. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
    11. António Afonso & António Jorge Silva, 2014. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area: has it changed with the EMU? A VAR approach, with fiscal policy and financial stress considerations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/10, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    13. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    14. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    15. Jérôme Héricourt & Iuliana Matei, 2007. "Transmission de la politique monétaire dans les pays d'E urope centrale et orientale : que savons-nous vraiment ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 221-238.
    16. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    17. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    18. Masagus M. Ridhwan & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Activity - Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-043/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2016. "On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 40-63.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Dostie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.