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On the Sources of Macroeconomic Stability in the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In the mid-1990s the euro area experienced a change in macroeconomic volatility. Around the same time, at business cycle frequencies the correlation between inflation and money growth changed markedly, turning from positive to negative. Distinguishing the periods pre- and post 1994, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money for the euro area. The model accounts for the salient facts. We then perform several counterfactual exercises to assess the drivers of these phenomena. The moderation of real variables was essentially due to relatively smaller shocks to investment, wage markups and preferences. The apparent lack of evidence for the quantity theory of money in the short run and the changes in the volatility of nominal variables resulted primarily from a more anti-inflationary and gradual monetary policy

Suggested Citation

  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2016. "On the Sources of Macroeconomic Stability in the Euro Area," Post-Print hal-01612702, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01612702
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.11.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Fève & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 704-718, April.
    2. Bussière Matthieu & Sahuc Jean-Guillaume & Pfister Christian, 2020. "The link between money and inflation since 2008 [Le lien entre monnaie et inflation depuis 2008]," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 232.
    3. Semih Emre Çekin & Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson, 2021. "The Taylor curve: international evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(40), pages 4680-4691, August.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1fsnu13sl59jsautsd9gpjrj59 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bruna Santos & Leonardo Costa & Francisca Guedes de Oliveira, 2024. "The Euro Area 12: A Comparative Assessment of Its Member States in the Period 1998–2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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