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The Taylor Curve: International Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Semih Emre Cekin

    (Department of Economics, Turkish-German University, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Eric Olson

    (College of Business, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma, United States)

Abstract

We use the Taylor curve to gauge deviations of monetary policy from an efficiency locus for the United Kingdom (UK) and the four largest economies of the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) for the period 2000-2018. For this purpose, we use shadow interest rates, which is a common metric for both conventional and unconventional monetary policies, and the newly proposed Hamilton-filter to measure output gap, which improves upon the drawbacks of the traditionally used Hodrick-Prescott filter. Our findings suggest that deviations in the UK mostly occurred amid the global financial crisis and the post-Brexit period, whereas eurozone members experienced more volatile deviations around 2001, during the global financial crisis and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Semih Emre Cekin & Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson, 2020. "The Taylor Curve: International Evidence," Working Papers 202034, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202034
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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