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Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?

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  • Fabio Canova
  • Alain Schlaepfer

Abstract

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries and analyze their structure and interdependences. Fluctuations are volatile and not highly correlated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous making average output losses in the area limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial. Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked with the Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuations is poorly related to trade and financial linkages and to their evolution over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2011. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?," Economics Working Papers 1267, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1267
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    Cited by:

    1. Schüler, Yves Stephan & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Characterising the financial cycle: A multivariate and time-varying approach," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112985, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Dallari, Pietro, 2013. "How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean," Working Paper Series 1553, European Central Bank.
    3. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
    4. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    5. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul H. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2017. "Coherent financial cycles for G-7 countries: Why extending credit can be an asset," ESRB Working Paper Series 43, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. Ductor, Lorenzo & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Dynamics of global business cycle interdependence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 110-127.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turning point dates; Reference cycles; Euro-Mediterranean partnership; trade and financial interdependences;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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