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Tourism in the MED 11 Countries

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  • Robert Lanquar

Abstract

For the last two decades, MED11 countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario,(iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lanquar, 2011. "Tourism in the MED 11 Countries," CASE Network Reports 0098, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0098
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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/34467842_CNR_2011_98.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jawad Abbassi, 2011. "Information and Communications Technology in the Middle East: Situation as of 2010 and Prospective Scenarios for 2030," CASE Network Reports 0105, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Dabrowski & Luc DeWulf, 2013. "Economic Development, Trade and Investment in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0111, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Dallari, Pietro, 2013. "How important is tourism for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations? Evidence from the Mediterranean," Working Paper Series 1553, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mediterranean; domestic tourism; international tourism; security; climate change; tourism indicators; tourism's economic contribution; tourism competitiveness; tourism prospective; tourism scenarios;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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