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Internationale Konjunkturverbunde

Dieser Beitrag gibt zunächst eine begriffliche Klärung des Konzepts "internationaler Konjunkturverbund". Danach wird gezeigt, wie mit Rueckgriff auf eine einfache Approximation der Variablen "Kapazitätsauslastung" anhand von nur zwei Jahreszeitreihen (Bruttoinlandprodukt und Investitionsquote) eine international vergleichbare Bestimmung der konjunkturellen Position eines Landes erfolgen kann. Angewendet auf 26 entwickelte Länder mit Daten von 1960-2003 erhalten wir 26 Jahreszeitreihen. Diese unterziehen zur Identifizierung von Konjunkturgebern und -nehmern einer paarweise Kreuzkorrelationsanalyse. Anschliessend fuehren wir eine hierarchische Clusteranalyse durch. Die Zuordnung zu einem Konjunktur-Cluster ist dabei exklusiv und erfolgt auf einer binären Skala (ja/nein). Im nächsten Schritt greifen wir auf die Clusterzuordnung der untersten Ebene zurueck, um oekonomische Ähnlichkeiten innerhalb der Cluster herauszuarbeiten. Ein anderes heuristisches Verfahren zur Klärung der Datenstruktur ist die Hauptkomponentenanalyse, welche eine fuenfdimensionale Struktur aufzeigt. Länder, die zusammen stark auf einer der Hauptkomponenten laden, koennen als Konjunkturverbund interpretiert werden. Die Zugehoerigkeit ist dabei graduell definiert und nicht auf eine Ländergruppe beschränkt. Die Schweiz ist diesen Analysen zufolge Konjunkturnehmer und mit zwei europäischen Konjunkturverbunden assoziiert.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005104853
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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 05-108.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:05-108
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