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Die Real-Business-Cycle Theorie und ihre Relevanz fur die Konjunkturanalyse

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  • Lucke, Bernd

Abstract

Die Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie hat ihren Ursprung in zwei vor rund 20 Jahren erschienenen Artikeln von Kydland und Prescott (1982) sowie Long und Plosser (1983). Diese Artikel wirkten zur Zeit ihres Erscheinens revolutionär, denn sowohl inhaltlich als auch methodisch lagen sie weit abseits des Spektrums tradierter Konjunkturtheorie. Anstelle einer eingehenden Diskussion sei hier nur kurz erwähnt, dass trotz ihrer gewaltigen Heterogenität die traditionelle Konjunkturtheorie zumindest stillschweigend eine weitgehende Einigkeit darüber erzielt hatte, dass zur Erklärung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Fluktuationen auf irgendwelche ?Unvollkommenheiten? abzustellen sei – wobei ?Unvollkommenheiten? hier als Abweichungen von den idealtypisierenden Annahmen der Arrow-Debreu-Welt aufzufassen sind. Dissens herrschte lediglich über die Art der ?Unvollkommenheiten? und über ihre Wirkungen. So betonen traditionelle (IS-LM)-Keynesianik und die so genannte Neu-Keynesianik (die im übrigen wenig miteinander gemein haben), die Bedeutung von Lohn- und/oder Preisstarrheiten oder die Bedeutung von Anpassungskosten z. B. beim Investitionsverhalten. Die in der Regel als ideologisch konträr zum Keynesianismus aufgefassten Schulen des Monetarismus und der neuen klassischen Makroökonomie postulieren Unvollkommenheiten, indem sie unvollständige und gelegentlich asymmetrische Information annehmen. Eine Vielzahl von Modellen der unterschiedlichsten Schulen spezifiziert Phillipskurven oder andere Mechanismen beschränkter Rationalität bzw. beschränkt rationaler Erwartungen. Man vergleiche in diesem Zusammenhang z. B. zahlreiche Modelle politischer Konjunkturzyklen. Postkeynesianische Modelle z. B. des berühmten Goodwin-Typs modellieren Heterogenitäten zwischen den Agenten, so dass konjunkturelle Fluktuationen auf distributive Effekte (Verteilungskämpfe) zurückgeführt werden. Eine andere recht heterogene Modellklasse, die von Kaldor bis zu den so genannten Sonnenfleckenmodellen reicht, unterstellt Instabi
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  • Lucke, Bernd, 2002. "Die Real-Business-Cycle Theorie und ihre Relevanz fur die Konjunkturanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 26227, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:hwwadp:26227
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.26227
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    3. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1996. "The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
    4. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    5. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1, March.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January.
    8. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870," NBER Chapters, in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States since 1870, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lucke, Bernd & Gaggermeier, Christian, 2001. "On the identifiability of Euler equation estimates under saddlepath stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 155-163, May.
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    1. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    2. Graff Michael, 2006. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde / International Business Cycles," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(4), pages 385-417, August.

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