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European Business Cycles: New Indices and Their Synchronicity

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Dueker

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166.)

  • Katrin Wesche

    (Institute for International Economics, University of Bonn, LennÈstrasse 37, Bonn D-53113, Germany.)

Abstract

This article presents a new business cycle index that allows for cycle-to-cycle comparisons of the depth of recessions within a country, cross-country comparisons of business cycle correlation, and simple aggregation to arrive at a measure of a European business cycle. The data augmentation implied by Gibbs sampling generates posterior distributions for a latent coincident business cycle index. Subsample correlations between an aggregated "Europe" index and the national business cycle indices from France, Germany, and Italy are consistent with the claim that the European economies are becoming more harmonized. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2003. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Their Synchronicity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 116-131, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:41:y:2003:i:1:p:116-131
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, December.
    2. George Monokroussos, 2011. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and U.S. Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 519-534, March.
    3. Peiro, Amado, 2005. "Economic comovements in European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, July.
    4. Andreas Brunhart, 2017. "Are Microstates Necessarily Led by Their Bigger Neighbors’ Business Cycle? The Case of Liechtenstein and Switzerland," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 29-52, May.
    5. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    6. George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Esashi, Kunihiko & Onozaki, Tamotsu & Saiki, Yoshitaka & Sato, Yuzuru, 2018. "Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    8. U. Bergman, 2008. "Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 49-69, July.
    9. Christian Melzer & Thorsten Neumann, 2009. "Monetary policy in the euro area - has it become more powerful on the road to EMU?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(18), pages 1801-1804.

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