IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v44y2018icp68-76.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Esashi, Kunihiko
  • Onozaki, Tamotsu
  • Saiki, Yoshitaka
  • Sato, Yuzuru

Abstract

Empirical studies often conclude that multi-regional business cycles exhibit intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization of each regional fluctuations. In this study, we robustly observe this behavior (called chaotic itinerancy) in a model of multi-regional business cycles, in which all regions of a national economy are homogeneous and connected through producers’ behavior based on the average level announced by the government. Although a producer very slowly adjusts his/her output towards the average level, regional business cycles begin to synchronize because of the entrainment effect. Moreover, when a producer emphasizes the profit maximization more and when puts more weight on the average level in his/her decision-making, the economy is more likely to exhibit such intermittent transition. Further, it is clarified that behind intermittent transition exist cycles among periodic orbits with different number of unstable directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Esashi, Kunihiko & Onozaki, Tamotsu & Saiki, Yoshitaka & Sato, Yuzuru, 2018. "Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:68-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.10.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300662
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.10.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos, 2012. "Business cycle synchronization during US recessions since the beginning of the 1870s," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 467-472.
    3. Huang, Weihong & Chen, Zhenxi, 2015. "Heterogeneous agents in multi-markets: A coupled map lattices approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 3-15.
    4. Ellen R. Rissman, 1999. "Regional employment growth and the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q IV), pages 21-39.
    5. Larsen, Erik Reimer & Morecroft, John D. W. & Thomsen, Jesper Skovhus & Mosekilde, Erik, 1993. "Devil's staircase and chaos from macroeconomic mode interaction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 759-769.
    6. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    7. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2010. "Business cycle synchronization of the euro area with the new and negotiating member countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 288-306.
    8. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August.
    9. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    10. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-132, January.
    11. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
    12. Bischi, Gian-Italo & Stefanini, Luciano & Gardini, Laura, 1998. "Synchronization, intermittency and critical curves in a duopoly game," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 559-585.
    13. Selover, David D. & Jensen, Roderick V., 1999. "'Mode-locking' and international business cycle transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 591-618, February.
    14. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
    15. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1, March.
    16. Onozaki, Tamotsu & Yanagita, Tatsuo & Kaizoji, Taisei & Toyabe, Kazutaka, 2007. "Regional business cycle synchronization through expectations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 102-107.
    17. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
    18. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode‐Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745, November.
    19. Lubos Hanus & Lukas Vacha, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization within the European Union: A wavelet cohesion approach," Papers 1506.03106, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    20. Onozaki, Tamotsu & Sieg, Gernot & Yokoo, Masanori, 2000. "Complex dynamics in a cobweb model with adaptive production adjustment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 101-115, February.
    21. Huang, Weihong & Chen, Zhenxi, 2014. "Modeling regional linkage of financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 18-31.
    22. Michael Dueker & Katrin Wesche, 2003. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Their Synchronicity," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 116-131, January.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Paul J. Kozlowski, 1995. "Money And Interest Rates As Predictors Of Regional Economic Activity," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 25(2), pages 143-157, Fall.
    25. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Michael A. Kouparitsas & Daisuke J. Nakajima, 2006. "Are U.S. and Seventh District business cycles alike?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q III), pages 45-60.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, January.
    2. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2016. "Business Cycle Spillovers in the European Union: What is the Message Transmitted to the Core?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 437-481, July.
    3. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    4. Mattia Guerini & Duc Thi Luu & Mauro Napoletano, 2023. "Synchronization patterns in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(18), pages 2038-2059, April.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5q8fnecj1u87ka099dc571bhi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    7. Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
    8. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    9. António M Lopes & J A Tenreiro Machado & John S Huffstot & Maria Eugénia Mata, 2018. "Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, February.
    10. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    11. Shen, Jiancheng & Selover, David D. & Li, Chao & Yousefi, Hamed, 2022. "An ocean apart? The effects of US business cycles on Chinese business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 677-698.
    12. Benoit Dicharry & Lubica Stiblarova, 2023. "Positive externalities of the EU cohesion policy: Toward more synchronised CEE countries?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 485-508, July.
    13. Hasan Engin Duran & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 255-282, March.
    14. Hasan Engin Duran, 2013. "Convergence Of Regional Economic Cycles In Turkey," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 152-175, November.
    15. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    16. Hoang Sang Nguyen & Fabien Rondeau, 2019. "The transmission of business cycles: Lessons from the 2004 enlargement of the EU and the adoption of the euro," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 729-743, July.
    17. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    18. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Brinca, Pedro & Gudjonsson, Haukur & Soares, Joana, 2015. "Optimal currency area and business cycle synchronization across U.S. states," MPRA Paper 62125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bekiros Stelios & Nguyen Duc Khuong & Uddin Gazi Salah & Sjö Bo, 2015. "Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 609-624, December.
    20. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    21. Selover David D. & Jensen Roderick V. & Kroll John, 2003. "Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-39, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional business cycle; Nonlinear dynamics; Synchronization; Globally coupled map; Chaotic itinerancy; Intermittency; Unstable dimension variability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:68-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.