IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedhep/y1999iqivp21-39nv.23no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional employment growth and the business cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Ellen R. Rissman

Abstract

Employment growth is highly correlated across regions. The author uses joint movements in regional employment growth to define and estimate a common factor, analogues to the business cycle. Regions differ substantially in the relative importance of cyclical shocks and idiosyncratic shocks in explaining the steady state variance in regional employment growth. For example, cyclical shocks account for almost 90 percent of the steady state variance in employment growth in the East South Central region and about 40 percent in the West South Central Region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellen R. Rissman, 1999. "Regional employment growth and the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q IV), pages 21-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1999:i:qiv:p:21-39:n:v.23no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/1999/ep4Q99_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    3. Katharine L. Bradbury, 1993. "Shifting patterns of regional employment and unemployment: a note," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
    4. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    5. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, December.
    2. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    3. De-Chih Liu, 2010. "Job creation and destruction by region in Taiwan," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-184, February.
    4. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(46), pages 1-12.
    5. Groenwold, Nicolaas & Lee, Guoping & Chen, Anping, 2008. "Inter-regional spillovers in China: The importance of common shocks and the definition of the regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 32-52, March.
    6. Nicolaas Groenewold & Guoping Lee & Anping Chen, 2006. "Inter-Regional Output Spillovers of Policy Shocks in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-26, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael Anderson & Jason Bram, 2001. "Declining manufacturing employment in the New York-New Jersey region: 1969-99," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Jan).
    8. Sungyup Chung, 2016. "Assessing the regional business cycle asymmetry in a multi-level structure framework: a study of the top 20 US MSAs," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(1), pages 229-252, January.
    9. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.
    10. Nicolaas Groenewold & Guoping Lee & Anping Chen, 2006. "Inter-Regional Output Spillovers in China: Disentangling National from Regional Shocks," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-25, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Esashi, Kunihiko & Onozaki, Tamotsu & Saiki, Yoshitaka & Sato, Yuzuru, 2018. "Intermittent transition between synchronization and desynchronization in multi-regional business cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-76.
    12. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
    2. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.
    3. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    4. Jean-Sébastien Lenfant, 2021. "Eugen (Evgeny Evgenievich) Slutsky (1880-1948)," Working Papers hal-03628273, HAL.
    5. Eswar Prasad & Alun Thomas, 1998. "A disaggregated analysis of employment growth fluctuations in Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 274-287, September.
    6. Mara Leticia Rojas, 2020. "La economía argentina ayer y hoy: hechos estilizados y des-estilizados," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4400, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    7. John P. Judd & Bharat Trehan, 1989. "Unemployment-rate dynamics: aggregate-demand and -supply interactions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 20-37.
    8. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    9. Linus Holtermann & Christian Hundt, 2018. "Hierarchically structured determinants and phase related patterns of economic resilience. An empirical case study for European regions," Working Papers on Innovation and Space 2018-02, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
    10. Victor Zarnowitz, 1991. "What is a Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 3863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Barros, Alexandre Rands, 1993. "A periodization of the business cycles in the Brazilian economy, 1856-1985," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 47(1), January.
    12. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    13. Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, 2016. "Blessing or Curse," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 11(1), pages 38-66, April.
    14. Charles I. Plosser, 1989. "Money and business cycles: a real business cycle interpretation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Robert F. Engle & Joao Victor Issler, 1993. "Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features," NBER Working Papers 4529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
    17. Grace Lee, 2011. "Aggregate shocks decomposition for eight East Asian countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 215-232.
    18. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2015. "A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1271-1299, December.
    20. Victor Zarnowitz, 1987. "The Regularity of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1999:i:qiv:p:21-39:n:v.23no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.