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Regional employment growth and the business cycle

  • Ellen R. Rissman
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    Employment growth is highly correlated across regions. The author uses joint movements in regional employment growth to define and estimate a common factor, analogues to the business cycle. Regions differ substantially in the relative importance of cyclical shocks and idiosyncratic shocks in explaining the steady state variance in regional employment growth. For example, cyclical shocks account for almost 90 percent of the steady state variance in employment growth in the East South Central region and about 40 percent in the West South Central Region.

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    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/1999/ep4Q99_2.pdf
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    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

    Volume (Year): (1999)
    Issue (Month): Q IV ()
    Pages: 21-39

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:1999:i:qiv:p:21-39:n:v.23no.4
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    1. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
    2. Joseph G. Altonji & John C. Ham, 1986. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional and Industrial Factors," NBER Working Papers 1816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Barro, Robert J., 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Scholarly Articles 3450988, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    6. Katharine L. Bradbury, 1993. "Shifting patterns of regional employment and unemployment: a note," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-12.
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