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A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market

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  • Noel Gaston
  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru

Abstract

Major economic events, such as the global financial crisis, are episodes of identifiable duration that differ from other time periods. Using monthly data on the unemployment rate, labour force participation rate and employment for Australia for the period from 1978 to 2012, we estimate a Markov-switching SVAR model to examine the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation and the performance of the Australian labour market. Three distinct labour market regimes are identified. We find that the labour market switches between periods of low unemployment and high participation, prolonged periods of relative stability and short, sharp periods of high unemployment and low participation. A key finding is that, due to the behaviour of workers not in the labour force, the long-term effect of an upswing in labour hiring results in a lower unemployment rate and a lower labour force participation rate. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

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  • Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2015. "A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1271-1299, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:49:y:2015:i:4:p:1271-1299
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-0920-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianna Oliskevych & Iryna Lukianenko, 2020. "European unemployment nonlinear dynamics over the business cycles: Markov switching approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 22(4), pages 375-401.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Labour force participation; Regime switching; O11; O57; C23;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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