Inter-regional spillovers in China: The importance of common shocks and the definition of the regions
This paper examines the question of inter-regional spillovers in China. We argue that this is a central question in Chinese economic policy, given the marked regional disparities that exist and the concern of policy-makers to ameliorate them. We analyse this question within the framework of a six-region vector-autoregressive model which we subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, with particular attention paid to the effects on the results of strong common output movements. We find the results of dynamic simulations to be importantly dependent on model specification; in particular, they are sensitive to the order in which the variables enter the model. After an assessment of various alternatives, we are able to specify a model with tolerable robustness by using data which has been purged of the effects of national output fluctuations. We find some expected but also some unexpected results. In the first category, the Yellow River and Changjiang River regions are found to have spillover effects on other regions although they are more extensive for the former; the South Western region has no significant spillover effects on the rest of the country, consistently with the results of previous research. However, in contrast both to other research and to our expectations, shocks to the South East region affect mainly the region itself with little spillover to the other regions. The same is true of the North East region while the North West region has extensive spillovers to other regions. We conclude that there is still much to be learned about the magnitude and timing of inter-regional spillovers before firm policy conclusions can be drawn.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chang, Gene H., 2002. "The cause and cure of China's widening income disparity," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 335-340, December.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991.
645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Demurger, Sylvie, 2001. "Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth: An Explanation for Regional Disparities in China?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-117, March.
- Brun, J. F. & Combes, J. L. & Renard, M. F., 2002.
"Are there spillover effects between coastal and noncoastal regions in China?,"
China Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 161-169.
- Jean-François BRUN & Jean-Louis COMBES & Mary-Françoise RENARD, 2001. "Are There Spillover Effects Between Coastal and Non-Coastal Regions in China ?," Working Papers 200113, CERDI.
- Sylvie Démurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao & Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002.
"Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China,"
Asian Economic Papers,
MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 146-197.
- Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao & Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1950, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sylvie DEMURGER & BAO & CHANG & MELLINGER & SACHS & Wing Thye WOO, 2001. "Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China," Working Papers 200109, CERDI.
- Sylvie Demurger & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Wing Thye Woo & Shuming Bao, Gene Chang & Andrew Mellinger, 2002. "Geography, Economic Policy, and Regional Development in China," NBER Working Papers 8897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bao, Shuming & Chang, Gene Hsin & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye, 2002. "Geographic factors and China's regional development under market reforms, 1978-1998," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 89-111.
- Yang, Dennis Tao, 2002. "What has caused regional inequality in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 331-334, December.
- Fleisher, Belton M. & Chen, Jian, 1997. "The Coast-Noncoast Income Gap, Productivity, and Regional Economic Policy in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 220-236, October.
- Kanbur, Ravi & Zhang, Xiaobo, 1999. "Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural-Urban and Inland-Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 686-701, December.
- Nicolaas Groenewold & Lee Guoping & Chen Anping, 2007.
"Regional output spillovers in China: Estimates from a VAR model,"
Papers in Regional Science,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(1), pages 101-122, 03.
- Nicolaas Groenewold & Guoping Lee & Anping Chen, 2005. "Regional Output Spillovers in China: Estimates from a VAR Model," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 05-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
- Long Gen Ying, 2000. "articles: Measuring the spillover effects: Some Chinese evidence," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 79(1), pages 75-89.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1993.
"Regional income dynamics,"
93-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2002. "Understanding U.S. regional cyclical comovement: How important are spillovers and common shocks?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 30-41.
- Brian A. Cromwell, 1992. "Does California drive the West? an econometric investigation of regional spillovers," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-23.
- Chen, Jian & Fleisher, Belton M., 1996. "Regional Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 141-164, April.
- Carolyn Sherwood-Call, 1988. "Exploring the relationships between national and regional economic fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 15-25.
- Xu, Xianchun, 2004. "China's gross domestic product estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 302-322.
- Ellen R. Rissman, 1999. "Regional employment growth and the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 21-39.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- Q. Zhang & B. Felmingham, 2002. "The Role of FDI, Exports and Spillover Effects in the Regional Development of China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 157-178.
- Yao, Shujie & Zhang, Zongyi, 2001. "On Regional Inequality and Diverging Clubs: A Case Study of Contemporary China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 466-484, September.
- Yao, S. & Zhang, Z., 1999.
"Regional Growth in Chine under Economic Reforms,"
124, Portsmouth University - Department of Economics.
- Demurger, Sylvie & Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Woo, Wing Thye & BAO, Shuming & Chang, Gene, 2002. "The relative contributions of location and preferential policies in China's regional development: being in the right place and having the right incentives," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 444-465, December.
- Cai, Fang & Wang, Dewen & Du, Yang, 2002. "Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 197-212.
- Holz, Carsten A., 2004. "Deconstructing China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-202.
- Clark, Todd E, 1998. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 202-29, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:19:y:2008:i:1:p:32-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.