IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lan/wpaper/26145565.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Campolieti
  • Deborah Gefang
  • Gary Koop

Abstract

We examine fluctuations in employment growth using Canadian data from 1976 to 2010. We consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our …findings to modeling assumptions. The results from our most preferred model, which we selected using the Bayesian Information Criteria, indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources, with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors. Overall, we find external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment fluctuations than earlier research. We provide some possible explanations for these differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:26145565
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/media/lancaster-university/content-assets/documents/lums/economics/working-papers/Gefang2013_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models With Macro, Frailty, and Industry Effects for U.S. Default Counts: The Credit Crisis of 2008," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 521-532, May.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    4. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2011. "Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada," Working Papers 1138, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H. & Sill, Keith, 2001. "Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 396-417, November.
    6. Altonji, Joseph G & Ham, John C, 1990. "Variation in Employment Growth in Canada: The Role of External, National, Regional, and Industrial Factors," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 198-236, January.
    7. Ellen R. Rissman, 1999. "Regional employment growth and the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 21-39.
    8. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    9. Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H, 1998. "Bayesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions in Iowa," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 997-1014, November.
    10. Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2001. "Dynamic Factor Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-424.
    11. Aguilar, Omar & West, Mike, 2000. "Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 338-357, July.
    12. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    13. Haroon Mumtaz & Saverio Simonelli & Paolo Surico, 2011. "International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 176-198, January.
    14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    15. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
    16. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    17. Rosenbloom, Joshua L. & Sundstrom, William A., 1999. "The Sources of Regional Variation in the Severity of the Great Depression: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing, 1919–1937," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(03), pages 714-747, September.
    18. Eswar Prasad & Alun Thomas, 1998. "A disaggregated analysis of employment growth fluctuations in Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 274-287, September.
    19. Marco Del Negro & Robin Brooks, 2005. "A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 05/52, International Monetary Fund.
    20. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
    21. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1988. "An inquiry into the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 43-70, July.
    22. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:26145565. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giorgio Motta). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/delanuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.