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Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

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  • Koop, Gary
  • Gefang, Deborah
  • Campolieti, Michele

Abstract

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Koop, Gary & Gefang, Deborah & Campolieti, Michele, 2012. "Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-69, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:404
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    1. Campolieti, Michele & Gefang, Deborah & Koop, Gary, 2014. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of industry, provincial, national and external factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 257-275.
    2. Michele Campolieti & Deborah Gefang & Gary Koop, 2013. "A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada," Working Papers 26145565, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment hazards; labor market dynamics; time-varying parameter VAR; sign-restricted impulse responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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