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Adding Space to the International Business Cycle

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  • Abate,Girum Dagnachew
  • Serven,Luis

Abstract

Growth fluctuations exhibit substantial synchronization across countries, which has been viewed as reflecting a global business cycle driven by shocks with worldwide reach, or spillovers resulting from local real and/or financial linkages between countries. This paper brings these two perspectives together by analyzing international growth fluctuations in a setting that allows for both global shocks and spatial dependence. Using annual data for 117 countries over 1970-2016, the paper finds that the cross-country dependence of aggregate growth is the combined result of global shocks summarized by a latent common factor and spatial effects accruing through the growth of nearby countries -- with proximity measured by bilateral trade linkages or geographic distance. The latent global factor shows a strong positive correlation with worldwide TFP growth. Countries'exposure to global shocks rises with their openness to trade and the degree of commodity specialization of their economies. Despite its simplicity, the empirical model fits the data well, especially for advanced countries. Ignoring the cross-country dependence of growth, by omitting spatial effects or common shocks (or both) from the analysis, leads to a marked deterioration of the empirical model's in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Abate,Girum Dagnachew & Serven,Luis, 2019. "Adding Space to the International Business Cycle," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8786, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8786
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Gloria Billé & Alessio Tomelleri & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Forecasting regional GDPs: a comparison with spatial dynamic panel data models," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 530-551, October.
    2. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Francis,Neville Ricardo & Kindberg-Hanlon,Gene, 2021. "Technology and Demand Drivers of Productivity Dynamics in Developed and Emerging Market Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9525, The World Bank.
    3. Falk Bräuning & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "The Transmission Mechanisms of International Business Cycles: International Trade and the Foreign Effects of US Monetary Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 300-325, March.
    4. Dieppe, Alistair & Francis, Neville & Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene, 2021. "Technological and non-technological drivers of productivity dynamics in developed and emerging market economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Dai, Siqi & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haiqi & Zheng, Chaowen, 2025. "Shrinkage estimation of spatial panel data models with multiple structural breaks and a multifactor error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    6. Kazem Biabany Khameneh & Reza Najarzadeh & Hassan Dargahi & Lotfali Agheli, 2021. "The Role of Global Value Chains in Carbon Intensity Convergence: A Spatial Econometrics Approach," Papers 2111.00566, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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