Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model
This paper measures the accuracy of using regional cycles to identify national business cycle turning points in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel (MSP) model. Based on the MSP model, it is determined that regional cycles are highly capable of identifying national business cycle turning points in the U.S., but the duration of recessions of regional cycles are longer than those of national business cycles.
Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
Issue (Month): 46 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
- Ellen R. Rissman, 1999. "Regional employment growth and the business cycle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 21-39.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Domazlicky, Bruce R., 1980. "Regional Business Cycles: A Survey," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 10(1).
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Erratum: The Likelihood ratio Test Under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 296., Boston College Department of Economics.
- David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode-Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1993. "Regional income dynamics," Working Papers 93-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Keith R. Phillips, 1988. "New tools for analyzing the Texas economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-13.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07c30069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.