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Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model

  • Shyh-Wei Chen

    ()

    (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Tunghai University)

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    This paper measures the accuracy of using regional cycles to identify national business cycle turning points in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel (MSP) model. Based on the MSP model, it is determined that regional cycles are highly capable of identifying national business cycle turning points in the U.S., but the duration of recessions of regional cycles are longer than those of national business cycles.

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2007/Volume3/EB-07C30069A.pdf
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    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 46 ()
    Pages: 1-12

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07c30069
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    1. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.
    2. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
    3. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode-Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-98, March-Apr.
    7. Domazlicky, Bruce R., 1980. "Regional Business Cycles: A Survey," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 10(1).
    8. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, April.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
    10. Keith R. Phillips, 1988. "New tools for analyzing the Texas economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-13.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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