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Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model

Author

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  • Shyh-Wei Chen

    () (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Tunghai University)

Abstract

This paper measures the accuracy of using regional cycles to identify national business cycle turning points in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel (MSP) model. Based on the MSP model, it is determined that regional cycles are highly capable of identifying national business cycle turning points in the U.S., but the duration of recessions of regional cycles are longer than those of national business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(46), pages 1-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07c30069
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
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    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
    6. David D. Selover & Roderick V. Jensen & John Kroll, 2005. "Mode-Locking and Regional Business Cycle Synchronization," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 703-745.
    7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
    9. Carlino Gerald & Defina Robert, 1995. "Regional Income Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 88-106, January.
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    11. Keith R. Phillips, 1988. "New tools for analyzing the Texas economy: indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jul, pages 1-13.
    12. Gerald A. Carlino & Keith Sill, 1997. "Regional economies: separating trends from cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May, pages 19-31.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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