IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v26y2015i5p971-998.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Konstantakis
  • Theofanis Papageorgiou
  • Panayotis Michaelides

    ()

  • Efthymios Tsionas

Abstract

The European Monetary Union (EMU) is the only Union that allows its members to conduct their own fiscal policy, which has to be consistent with the Maastricht treaty. This paper attempts to shed light on business cycles determinants focusing on fiscal variables in EU economies, in the time period 1996–2013, using quarterly data fully capturing the on-going recession. In this context, it also acknowledges the significant role of the Quality of Institutions and of the Elections in a Political Business cycles framework. Additionally, based on the business cycles characteristics of the EU economies it explores the potential formation of clusters in the EU economy. To this end, a number of relevant econometric techniques are employed such as: HP filtering, LLC tests; Ljung-Box tests; Fourier analysis; Rolling windows; Dynamic Panel Data analysis; Toda-Yamamoto causality test, Panel Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) and k-means clustering. Our findings suggest that Social Benefits, Social Transfers and Gross Debt are the most significant policy variables with a counter-cyclical character, while taxation was found to have a destabilizing effect. In addition, Elections and the Quality of Institutions were found to significantly affect the key fiscal variables examined. Meanwhile, most peripheral countries lie in one cluster suggesting that the recent crisis has led a number of small(-er) peripheral economies to cluster together. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:26:y:2015:i:5:p:971-998
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-015-9345-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-015-9345-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-1393, November.
    3. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    4. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    5. Mario Mechtel & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "Electoral cycles in active labor market policies," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 181-194, July.
    6. Magud, Nicolas E., 2008. "On asymmetric business cycles and the effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 885-905, September.
    7. Lourdes Montoya & Jakob Haan, 2008. "Regional business cycle synchronization in Europe?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 123-137, July.
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    9. Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Saiz, Lorena, 2006. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1687-1706.
    10. Juan González Alegre, 2012. "An evaluation of EU regional policy. Do structural actions crowd out public spending?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    12. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    13. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Stéphane Dées & Nico Zorell, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 623-643, September.
    15. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    16. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, January.
    17. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2011. "Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accommodation," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 555-598, October.
    18. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, May.
    19. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Toke Aidt & Francisco Veiga & Linda Veiga, 2011. "Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 21-44, July.
    21. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2012. "A Note On Time Variation In A Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence From European Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S3), pages 422-437, November.
    22. Andrew Dickerson & Heather Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 1998. "Business Cycle Correspondence in the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 49-75, January.
    23. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Maria Joana Soares, 2009. "Business Cycle Synchronization Across the Euro-Area: a Wavelet Analysis," NIPE Working Papers 8/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    24. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447.
    25. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    26. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    27. Georgios Efthyvoulou, 2012. "Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 295-327, December.
    28. Castro, Vitor, 2011. "The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 313-326, June.
    29. Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
    30. Massmann, Michael & Mitchell, James, 2003. "Reconsidering the evidence: Are Eurozone business cycles converging," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    31. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990–2010," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 371-396, July.
    32. Ales, Laurence & Maziero, Pricila & Yared, Pierre, 2014. "A theory of political and economic cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 224-251.
    33. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    34. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    35. repec:hrv:faseco:34729976 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2001. "The Euro after Two Years," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 1-13, March.
    37. Efthyvoulou, Georgios, 2011. "Political cycles under external economic constraints: Evidence from Cyprus," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 638-662.
    38. Aloui, Rym, 2013. "Deep Habits And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Government Debt," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(08), pages 1659-1686, December.
    39. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2007. "Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 424-434, December.
    40. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2010. "Do Elections Affect the Composition of Fiscal Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2908, CESifo Group Munich.
    42. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    43. Andrew Abbott & Philip Jones, 2013. "Procyclical government spending: a public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 243-258, March.
    44. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    45. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    46. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    47. Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jochen Mierau, 2013. "Do budgetary institutions mitigate the common pool problem? New empirical evidence for the EU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 423-441, September.
    48. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    49. Dalia S. Hakura, 2009. "Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: What Explains the “Great Moderation” of 1970-2003?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 229-254, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:26:y:2015:i:5:p:971-998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Mallaigh Nolan). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.