Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: What Explains the “Great Moderation” of 1970-2003?
Output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across groups of nontransition countries studied in this paper over the past three decades, but have remained considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to have resulted from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970–2003 period suggests that the volatility of discretionary fiscal spending and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility were key determinants of volatility and large output drops.
Volume (Year): 59 (2009)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague|
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013.
"Regionalization vs. Globalization,"
13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Hideaki Hirata & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," IMF Working Papers 13/19, International Monetary Fund.
- Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, . "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," CAMA Working Papers 2013-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004.
"When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Working Papers
10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002.
"The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
- Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003.
"Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers,"
NBER Working Papers
9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lane, Philip R., 2003.
"The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
- Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:59:y:2009:i:3:p:229-255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.