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On Asymmetric Business Cycles and the Effectiveness of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies


  • Nicolas Magud

    () (University of Oregon Economics Department)


In the presence of informational frictions and uncertainty, an investment model is developed to capture the asymmetric dynamics of business cycles. When affected by a negative shock, the economy responds differently than when hit by a positive shock, both in terms of size and recovery length. In this set up, the role for fiscal policy in smoothing the effects of business cycles fluctuations depends on the initial conditions of the economy at the time of the shock: based on the degree of fiscal fragility of the government, expansionary fiscal policy might be expansionary or contractionary in terms of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Magud, 2002. "On Asymmetric Business Cycles and the Effectiveness of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-20, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 May 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2005-20

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
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    16. repec:hrv:faseco:3353756 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2013. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 34-58.
    2. Delong Li & Nicolas E Magud & Fabian Valencia, 2015. "Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets; Financing vs. Real Options Channel," IMF Working Papers 15/285, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples
      [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]
      ," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Huixin Bi & Wenyi Shen & Susan S. Yang, 2014. "Fiscal Limits, External Debt, and Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/49, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Konstantinos Konstantakis & Theofanis Papageorgiou & Panayotis Michaelides & Efthymios Tsionas, 2015. "Economic Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy in Europe: A Political Business Cycles Approach Using Panel Data and Clustering (1996–2013)," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 971-998, November.
    6. Nicolas E Magud & Sebastian Sosa, 2015. "Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?," IMF Working Papers 15/77, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Toshihiro Ihori, 2013. "Fiscal Fluctuation Risks and Intergovernmental Functional Allocation," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, January.
    8. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Asymmetric Information; Business Cycles; Fiscal Fragility; Fiscal Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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