Business Cycle Linkages for the G7 Countries: Does the US Lead the World?
This paper empirically models the relationship between quarterly business cycle movements in the US and the other G7 countries, including an analysis of the US with a European (E15) aggregate. By using a nonlinear smooth transition vector autoregressive framework, the possibility of asymmetric business cycle linkages is explored. Statistical testing almost always rejects linearity, with the nonlinearity in the VAR generally associated with lagged annual US growth. To represent different types of possible business cycle linkages, three nonlinear VAR models are estimated for each country with the US, where these represent common business cycle regimes, US-led (but not common) regimes and country-specific (or idiosyncratic) regimes. In general, high annual US growth is found to lead to a distinct business cycle regime in other G7 countries compared with average or low US growth. Tests indicate that quarterly US growth patterns are important for other countries primarily in the lower regime, with domestic autoregressive lags then sometimes insignificant.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- P J Perez & D R Osborn & M Artis, 2003.
"The International Business Cycle in a Changing World: Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
37, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Pedro PEREZ-VAZQUEZ & Denise OSBORN & Michael ARTIS, . "The International Business Cycle in a Changing World:Volatility and the Propagation of Shocks," EcoMod2004 330600111, EcoMod.
- Denise Osborn & Pedro Perez & Michael Artis, 2004. "The International Business Cycle In A Changing World: Volatility And The Propagation Of Shocks," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 138, Royal Economic Society.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
- Phillips, Kerk L., 1991. "A two-country model of stochastic output with changes in regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 121-142, August.
- Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004.
"Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- PESARAN M. Hashem & SCHUERMANN Til & WEINER Scott, . "Modelling Regional Interdependencies using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," EcoMod2003 330700121, EcoMod.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003.
"Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar Prasad, 1999. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations; A New Approach," IMF Working Papers 99/154, International Monetary Fund.
- Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Prasad, Eswar, 2002. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 487, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997.
"International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
- Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1995. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a European Business Cycle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hyeon-Seung Huh & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2002. "Asymmetric output cost of lowering inflation: empirical evidence for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 218-238, May.
- Anderson, H.M. & Vahid, F., 2000.
"Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
3/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Predicting The Probability Of A Recession With Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading-Indicator Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 482-505, September.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Inklaar, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2001. "Is There Really a European Business Cycle? A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 215-20, April.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Hyeon-seung Huh, 2002. "Estimating Asymmetric Output Cost of Lowering Inflation for Australia," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 600-616, January.
- Weise, Charles L, 1999. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: A Nonlinear Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 85-108, February.
- Rothman, Philip & van Dijk, Dick & null, Philip Hans, 2001. "Multivariate Star Analysis Of Money Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 506-532, September.
- P J Perez & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003.
"Business Cycle Affiliations in the Context of European Integration,"
Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series
29, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Pedro Perez & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "Business cycle affiliations in the context of European integration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 199-214.
- Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2002. "An investigation of co-movements among the growth rates of the G-7 countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 427-437.
- Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 1998. "Testing multiple equation systems for common nonlinear components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-36, May.
- Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:sespap:0527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.