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Understanding the lead/lag structure among regional business cycles

  • Stefano Magrini

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Margherita Gerolimetto

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Hasan Engin Duran

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

The analysis of synchronization among regional or national business cycles has recently been attracting a growing interest within the economic literature. Far less attention has instead been devoted to a closely related issue: given a certain level of synchronization, some economies might be systematically ahead of others along the swings of the business cycle. In other words, there could be a lead/lag structure in which some economies systematically lead or lag behind others. In the present paper we aim at providing a thorough analysis of the lead/lag structure among a system of regional economies. This task is achieved in two steps. First, we show that leading (or lagging behind) is a feature that does not occur at random across the economies. Second, we investigate the economic drivers that could explain such a behavior. To do so, we employ data for 48 conterminous US states between 1979 and 2010.

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File URL: http://www.unive.it/media/allegato/DIP/Economia/Working_papers/Working_papers_2011/WP_DSE_magrini_gerolimetto_duran_06_11.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2011_06.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2011_06
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