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Has Integration Promoted Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU?

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  • Nikolaos Antonakakis
  • Gabriele Tondl

Abstract

This paper examines whether European integration, manifesting itself in increased trade and FDI linkages, new specializations and economic policy coordination, contributed to the synchronization of business cycles in the enlarged EU. We estimate the effects on bilateral growth rate correlations in 1995-2008 in a simultaneous equations model which permits to model endogenous relationships and unveil direct and indirect effects. Trade and FDI prove to have a strong impact on synchronization, specifically between incumbent and new EU members. More coordinated fiscal policies and, particularly in EU 15, the alignment of monetary policies promoted synchronization. Nevertheless, flexible exchange rates remained important adjustment instruments for the new member states. Increasing manufacturing specialization is not counteracting synchronization. The achieved EU income convergence, a declared objective of EU policy, supported business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Has Integration Promoted Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU?," FIW Working Paper series 075, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2011:i:075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Bilateral Trade and SEE–Eurozone Countries Growth Rate Alignment," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(2 (Summer), pages 137-155.
    2. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as15 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; transmission channel; FDI; trade; monetary union; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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