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Patterns and determinants of business cycle synchronization in the enlarged European Economic and Monetary Union

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  • Iulia SIEDSCHLAG

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland)

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence about the degree of business cycle synchronization between the euro area countries and eight new European Union member states. We analyze the direct and indirect effects of similarity of economic structures and trade intensity on the co-movement of fluctuations of economic activity across these countries and find that bilateral similarity of economic structures and trade intensity were positively and significantly associated with business cycle correlations. This result is robust to different estimation techniques. Similarity of economic structures had an additional indirect positive effect on business cycle synchronization via its positive effect on trade intensity. The bilateral business cycle correlations are found to be endogenous with respect to bilateral similarity of economic structures and bilateral trade intensity suggesting that the new European Union countries will better satisfy the Optimum Currency Area criteria after the adoption of the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Iulia SIEDSCHLAG, 2010. "Patterns and determinants of business cycle synchronization in the enlarged European Economic and Monetary Union," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 1, pages 21-44, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jes:journl:y:2010:v:1:p:21-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Beck, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization In European Union: Regional Perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 785-815, December.
    2. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    3. Carlo Gianelle & Letizia Montinari & Simone Salotti, 2017. "Interregional Trade, Specialization, and the Business Cycle: Policy Implications for the EMU," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    5. Krzysztof Beck & Jakub Janus, 2013. "Aggregate Demand Disturbances in the Visegrad Group and the Eurozone," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 1(3), pages 7-19.
    6. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    7. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Bilateral Trade and SEE–Eurozone Countries Growth Rate Alignment," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(2 (Summer), pages 137-155.
    8. Hoang Sang Nguyen & Fabien Rondeau, 2019. "The transmission of business cycles: Lessons from the 2004 enlargement of the EU and the adoption of the euro," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 729-743, July.
    9. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2011. "Has Integration Promoted Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU?," FIW Working Paper series 075, FIW.
    10. Jianu, Ionut, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 19-32.
    11. Salá Rios, Mercé & Farré Perdiguer, Mariona & Torres Solé, Teresa, 2011. "El ciclo económico de Cataluña. Un análisis de la simetría respecto a España y a la UEM/Catalonia's Business Cycle. An Analysis of the Symmetry in Relation to Spain and the EMU," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 913(24á.)-9, Diciembre.
    12. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Structural Similarity as a Determinant of Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union: A Robust Analysis," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(2).

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