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Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement

  • W. Jos Jansen

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

  • Ad C.J. Stokman

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

This paper investigates the relationship between bilateral FDI positions and cross-country business cycle correlations in the period 1982–2001. We find that countries that have comparatively intensive FDI relations also have more synchronized business cycles during 1995–2001. Before 1995, we also find a positive association between FDI linkages and output comovement, but this may partly reflect the effects of trade relations. Moreover, more intensive FDI links are also associated with a greater vulnerability to lagged output spillovers from abroad, whereas trade links are not. Policy implications of our research are (1) that there is an underlying tendency for business cycles to exhibit greater comovement in the future, and (2) that policy makers need to incorporate the FDI linkage among economies in their models and analytical framework for policy analysis.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0402/0402029.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0402029.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 26 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0402029
Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Windows XP; to print on HP Laser Printer, A4 page format; pages: 26; figures: Figues included. Revised version, 15 January 2004
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg & Gur Huberman, 2004. "Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?," NBER Working Papers 10537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Blomström, Magnus & Globerman, Steve & Kokko, Ari, 2000. "The Determinants of Host Country Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 2350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. W.Jos Jansen & Ad C.J.Stokman, 2003. "The Importance of Multinational Companies for Global Economic Linkages," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 99, Netherlands Central Bank.
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  11. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
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  14. Rob Luginbuhl & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Convergence in European GDP series: a multivariate common converging trend-cycle decomposition," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 611-636.
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  16. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson, 1998. "Stock Market Fluctuations and Consumption Behaviour: Some Recent Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 208, OECD Publishing.
  17. William L. Griever & Gary A. Lee & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "The U.S. system for measuring cross-border investment in securities: a primer with a discussion of recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 634-650.
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  27. repec:dgr:uvatin:20030031 is not listed on IDEAS
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  29. Braconier, Henrik & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Urban, Dieter, 2002. "Vertical FDI Revisited," Working Paper Series 579, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
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