IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eeg/euroeg/22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI

Author

Listed:
  • Mariam Camarero
  • Cecilio Tamarit

Abstract

In this paper we examine the joint performance of FDI and trade under a full liberalization process consistent with New Trade Theory models. The testing framework consists of the estimation of demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the US and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors, not only the traditional determinants of trade, but also new ones, such as the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply a variety of panel unit root and cointegration tests to the cases of both homogeneous and heterogeneous panels. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementarity relationship between trade and FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:eeg:euroeg:22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ucm.es/info/econeuro/documentos/documentos/dt222003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ray Barrell & Nigel Pain, 1997. "The Growth of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 160(1), pages 63-75, April.
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & María Montero-Muñoz, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 305-323, July.
    3. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2021. "Estimating The Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 5, pages 95-110, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Fukao, Kyoji & Ishido, Hikari & Ito, Keiko, 2003. "Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 468-506, December.
    5. Magnus Blomstrom & Ari Kokko, 1997. "Regional Integration and Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 6019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    7. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394, Elsevier.
    8. repec:exe:wpaper:99/17 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    10. J. Peter Neary, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment and the Single Market," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(3), pages 291-314, June.
    11. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Factor Movements And Commodity Trade As Complements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 15, pages 325-340, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1997. "A Monte Carlo Comparison of Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data," Econometrics 9712002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jonathan Eaton & Akiko Tamura, 1996. "Japanese and U.S. Exports and Investment as Conduits of Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 51-75, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    16. Baldwin, Richard E. & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2001. "Multiproduct multinationals and reciprocal FDI dumping," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 429-448, August.
    17. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "A Unified Approach to Intra-Industry Trade and Direct Foreign Investment," NBER Working Papers 8335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. Blomstrom, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 1997. "Regional integration and foreign direct investment : a conceptual framework and three cases," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1750, The World Bank.
    21. Peter Egger, 2001. "European exports and outward foreign direct investment: A dynamic panel data approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(3), pages 427-449, September.
    22. James R. Markusen & Anthony J. Venables & Denise Eby Konan & Kevin H. Zhang, 1996. "A Unified Treatment of Horizontal Direct Investment, Vertical Direct Investment, and the Pattern of Trade in Goods and Services," NBER Working Papers 5696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro & Matthias Lücke, 2014. "Economic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis off Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 7, pages 125-151, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Brainard, S Lael, 1997. "An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration Trade-off between Multinational Sales and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 520-544, September.
    26. Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1031-1046, May.
    27. Robert C. Feenstra & James R. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 430-447, May.
    28. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
    29. James R. Markusen, 1997. "Trade versus Investment Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 6231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-1786, November.
    31. Driver, R. & Wren-Lewis, S., 1999. "New Trade Theory and Aggregate Export Equations: an Application of Panel Cointegration," Discussion Papers 9917, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    32. Dunning, John H, 1979. "Explaining Changing Patterns of International Production: In Defence of the Eclectic Theory," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 269-295, November.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    34. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kichun Kang, 2012. "Is the "Houthakker-Magee" Finding Durable? Evidence from Disaggregated Trade Flows between China and Korea," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 13(2), pages 299-316, November.
    2. Lundan, Sarianna M., 2007. "The Home Country Effects of Internationalisation," Discussion Papers 1100, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Menzie Chinn, 2014. "Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 8, pages 249-286, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Keun Lee & Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake, 2018. "Adding-Up Problem and Wage–Productivity Gap in Exports of Developing Countries: A Source of the Middle-Income Trap," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(5), pages 769-788, December.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D., 2010. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialisation andTrade Costs: The Implications for Aggreagate US Trade Flow Equations," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 14, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    6. Jelena Trivic & £ukasz Klimczak, 2015. "The determinants of intra-regional trade in the Western Balkans," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 33(1), pages 37-66.
    7. Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 11129, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Stirböck, Claudia, 2006. "How strong is the impact of exports and other demand components on German import demand? Evidence from euro-area and non-euro-area imports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,39, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Raphaël Chiappini, 2016. "Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 403-425, June.
    10. Sourafel Girma, 2005. "Absorptive Capacity and Productivity Spillovers from FDI: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 281-306, June.
    11. Jaime Turrion & Carmela Martin, 2003. "Eastern Enlargement of the European Union and Foreign Direct Investment Adjustments," European Economy Group Working Papers 24, European Economy Group.
    12. Johnson, Andreas, 2006. "FDI and Exports: the case of the High Performing East Asian Economies," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 57, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    13. Mahmoud Mohammed Sabra, 2016. "Remittances Impact on Economic Growth, Domestic Savings and Domestic Capital at the Presence of ODA and FDI in Selected MENA Countries," International Journal of Regional Development, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 1-26, December.
    14. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 806, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raphaël Chiappini, 2012. "Un réexamen de la relation entre commerce et Investissement Direct à l'étranger (IDE) à partir d'un modèle en panel dynamique Le cas de l'Allemagne, la France et l'Italie," Working Papers hal-00744405, HAL.
    2. Elvira Sapienza, 2009. "The interaction between Export and FDI: Central-Eastern Europe and EU15," Quaderni DSEMS 13-2009, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    3. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau, 2016. "The interaction between trade and FDI: the CEE countries experience," Papers 1609.02334, arXiv.org.
    4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau, 2019. "The interaction between trade and FDI: The CEECs experience," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 489-509, July.
    5. Adolfo Maza & Paula Gutiérrez-Portilla, 2022. "Outward FDI and exports relation: A heterogeneous panel approach dealing with cross-sectional dependence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 174-189.
    6. Raphaël Chiappini, 2016. "Do overseas investments create or replace trade? New insights from a macro-sectoral study on Japan," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 403-425, June.
    7. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
    8. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    9. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    10. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    11. Resmini, Laura & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2013. "Is foreign direct investment to China crowding out the foreign direct investment to other countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    13. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    14. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    15. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    16. Manuela Magalhães & Ana Paula Africano, 2007. "A Panel Analysis of the FDI Impact on International Trade," FEP Working Papers 235, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. Ana Paula Africano & Manuela Magalhaes, 2005. "FDI and Trade in Portugal: a gravity analysis," FEP Working Papers 174, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Jannatul Ferdaus & Bismark Kusi Appiah & Shapan Chandra Majumder & Anouba Acha Arnaud Martial, 2020. "A Panel Dynamic Analysis on Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth in Next 11 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 87-99.
    19. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?," European Economy Group Working Papers 16, European Economy Group.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eeg:euroeg:22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ismael Sanz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/geucmes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.