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Un réexamen de la relation entre commerce et Investissement Direct à l'étranger (IDE) à partir d'un modèle en panel dynamique Le cas de l'Allemagne, la France et l'Italie

  • Raphaël Chiappini

    ()

    (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954, GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS))

Cet article étudie la relation entre le stock d'IDE sortants et les flux de commerce bilatéraux des 4 principaux exportateurs de la zone euro. A partir d'un modèle en panel dynamique estimé par la Méthode des Moments Généralisés (GMM) en système, nous montrons qu'il existe une forte relation de complémentarité entre IDE et commerce pour l'Allemagne, en particulier avec les pays émergents. Les résultats concernant la France sont moins prononcés et indiquent uniquement une faible relation de complémentarité entre IDE et commerce avec les pays émergents. Enfin, une relation significative de substitution est trouvée dans le cas des flux commerciaux italiens en direction des autres pays développés.

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Date of creation: 14 Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00744405
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