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Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis

We analyse in this paper the relationship between outward FDI and exports, with Spanish quarterly data for the period 1977-1992. The empirical methodology makes use of Granger-causality tests in a cointegration framework, where the order of lags for each variable has been selected by means of Hsiao¹s sequential approach. The tests have been performed both in a bivariate and multivariate setting, in the latter case including as additional variables a proxy for world income and the relative price of exports. Since cointegration between outward FDI and exports was found, error-correction mechanisms under three alternative specifications were included, which allowed us to discriminate between short- and long-run Granger-causality. Our results point to the existence of long-run Granger-causality from outward FDI to exports, according to a complementary relationship, for the Spanish case during the period of analysis.

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Paper provided by Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra in its series Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra with number 9902.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nav:ecupna:9902
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  1. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December.
  2. Oscar Bajo & Maria Montero Mu–oz, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9902, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393, July.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  5. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  7. Markusen, James R., 1983. "Factor movements and commodity trade as complements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 341-356, May.
  8. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, pages 71-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Douglas D. Purvis, 1971. "Technology, Trade and Factor Mobility," Working Papers 54, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  10. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  11. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1984. "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 304-08, May.
  12. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  13. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Ksenia Kulchycky, 1987. "U.S. and Swedish Direct Investment and Exports," NBER Working Papers 2390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:101:y:1986:i:4:p:805-33 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Lourdes Moreno Martín & Diego Rodríguez, 1998. "Efectos de la inversión extranjera directa en los flujos comerciales de las empresas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 179-199, May.
  16. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(3), pages 451-71, June.
  17. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1981. "Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 488-94, November.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  20. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  21. Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
  22. Schmitz, Andrew & Helmberger, Peter, 1970. "Factor Mobility and International Trade: The Case of Complementarity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 761-67, September.
  23. repec:fda:fdaddt:9716 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Yamawaki, Hideki, 1991. "Exports and Foreign Distributional Activities: Evidence on Japanese Firms in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 294-300, May.
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