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La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)

  • Juan Esteban Carranza

    ()

  • Alejandra González

    ()

  • Natalia Serna

    ()

En este documento estudiamos la interacción entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana durante la última década. Nuestro estudio descriptivo se basa en un panel detallado de producción y valor agregado a nivel de producto industrial, con información adicional del volumen, valor y tasa de cambio bilateral por producto y por país de destino/origen de las exportaciones e importaciones. La riqueza del panel permite la estimación de correlaciones condicionales en un conjunto amplio de controles, incluyendo efectos fijos a nivel de producto, tiempo y país de destino/origen, que por lo tanto absorbe patrones complejos de heterogeneidad no observada. Nuestros resultados muestran una correlación positiva y robusta entre el valor agregado y las exportaciones industriales, la cual es consistente con nociones convencionales sobre el comportamiento de las firmas industriales en economías abiertas. Encontramos además que las importaciones y el valor agregado de la producción nacional de cada producto tienen una correlación nula o positiva que contradice los temores de una posible sustitución sistemática entre producción doméstica e importaciones. Nuestros resultados muestran además patrones de correlación entre comercio exterior y algunas otras variables relevantes como la tasa de cambio real y nominal. Caracterizamos además los efectos del comercio con Venezuela y mostramos que este ha tenido poco efecto sobre el desempeño de largo plazo de la industria.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 806.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:806
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  1. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Adolfo Meisel Roca & Carmen Helena Botero Arboleda, 1988. "Funciones De Oferta De Las Exportaciones Menores Colombianas," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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  12. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S & Officer, Lawrence H, 1980. "Prices of Tradable and Nontradable Goods in the Demand for Total Imports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 190-99, May.
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