IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000122/015662.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio internacional en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Torres García
  • Thomas Goda
  • Santiago Sanchez Gonzalez
  • Adriana Romero Villanueva

Abstract

Durante el período 2006-2013 Colombia experimentó una de las apreciaciones reales más fuertes del mundo. Durante este mismo período, el volumen de exportaciones manufactureras disminuyó cerca de un 50%, mientras el volumen de importaciones aumentó cerca de la misma cantidad. Este trabajo busca determinar el efecto de la tasa de cambio real sobre los flujos de comercio internacional en el sector manufacturero. Para tal fin, y como principal aporte, se calculan índices de tasa de cambio real (TCR) subsectorial para 19 subsectores manufactureros, teniendo en cuenta la potencial existencia de heterogeneidades entre ellos. Se estiman además las elasticidades precio para exportaciones e importaciones usando los índices de tasa de cambio real bilateral y subsectorial. Los resultados indican la existencia de importantes diferencias entre el comportamiento de la TCR entre subsectores, y que estas diferencias explican el comportamiento de las exportaciones en los distintos sectores manufactureros, aunque los resultados no son tan claros para el caso de las importaciones. Éstos resultados sugieren que los hacedores de política deberían tener en cuenta los efectos diferenciales de sus políticas sobre el desempeño manufacturero cuando estas afectan la TCR.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Torres García & Thomas Goda & Santiago Sanchez Gonzalez & Adriana Romero Villanueva, 2017. "Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio internacional en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 15662, Universidad EAFIT.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:015662
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/11558#.WWk3m9Pyvq0
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. María del Pilar Esguerra Umana & Enrique Montes Uribe & Aaron Garavito Acosta, 2010. "El comercio colombo – venezolano: características y evolución reciente," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, April.
    2. Mi Dai & Jianwei Xu, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China: 2000–2009," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 100-120, September.
    3. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    5. Sierra, Lya Paola & Manrique L., Karina, 2014. "Impacto del tipo de cambio real en los sectores industriales de Colombia: una primera aproximación," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    6. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
    7. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2017. "Long-term links between raw materials prices, real exchange rate and relative de-industrialization in a commodity-dependent economy: empirical evidence of “Dutch disease” in Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 777-798, March.
    8. María del Pilar Esguerra Umaña & Enrique Montes Uribe & Aaron Garavito Acosta & Carolina Pulido Gónzalez, 2010. "El comercio Colombo-Venezolano: características y evolución reciente," Borradores de Economia 6987, Banco de la Republica.
    9. Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 806, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Iader Giraldo Salazar, 2015. "Determinantes de las exportaciones manufactureras de Colombia : un estudio a partir de un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 45(2), pages 55-99, December.
    11. Guzman, Martin & Ocampo, Jose Antonio & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2018. "Real exchange rate policies for economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 51-62.
    12. Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates and Export Price Competitiveness: The Cases of Japan, China, and Korea," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 298-321, December.
    13. Garavito, Aarón & Montes, Enrique & Esguerra, María del Pilar, 2013. "Exportaciones a Venezuela: evolución y efecto sobre el panorama exportador y las firmas colombianas (2000-2012)," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 79, pages 73-111, May.
    14. Iregui-Bohórquez, Ana María & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Ramírez-Giraldo, María Teresa & Delgado R., Carmen Cecilia, 2015. "Desempeño de las empresas en Colombia : efecto de la volatilidad y el desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real," Chapters, in: Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. (ed.), Política monetaria y estabilidad financiera en economías pequeñas y abiertas, chapter 13, pages 417-442, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko & Nagendra SHRESTHA & Shajuan ZHANG, 2013. "Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Price Competitiveness: Industry-specific real effective exchange rates of Japan, Korea, and China," Discussion papers 13032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. SATO Kiyotaka & SHIMIZU Junko & Nagendra SHRESTHA & Shajuan ZHANG, 2012. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates for Japan," Discussion papers 12044, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García & Cristhian David Larrahondo Dominguez, 2021. "Sectoral real exchange rates and manufacturing exports: A case study of Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 19286, Universidad EAFIT.
    2. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Oviedo-Gómez, 2021. "La tasa de cambio y sus impactos en los agregados económicos colombianos: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 29(2), pages 121-142, October.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Ulrich Volz, 2020. "The Yen Exchange Rate and the Hollowing Out of the Japanese Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 371-406, April.
    4. Margalida Murillo & Cindy Paola Leal, 2021. "Tratados de Libre Comercio y duración de las exportaciones: Evidencia a nivel de firma para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 88(6), pages 201-238, July.
    5. David C. López-Valenzuela & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano & Alvaro Carmona-Duarte, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR," Borradores de Economia 1075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Hyelin Choi & Hyo Sang Kim, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Firm Exports: The Role of Foreign Ownership and Foreign Subsidiaries," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 19(2), pages 103-118, Summer.
    7. Kawasaki, Kentaro & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2021. "A new assessment of economic integration in East Asia: Application of an industry-specific G-PPP model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Sato, Kiyotaka & Shimizu, Junko & Shrestha, Nagendra & Zhang, Shajuan, 2020. "New empirical assessment of export price competitiveness: Industry-specific real effective exchange rates in Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Keiko Ito & Junko Shimizu, 2015. "Industry-Level Competitiveness, Productivity and Effective Exchange Rates in East Asia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 181-214, June.
    10. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 7-42, December.
    11. SHIMIZU Junko & SATO Kiyotaka, 2015. "Abenomics, Yen Depreciation, Trade Deficit, and Export Competitiveness," Discussion papers 15020, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. José Tomás Peláez S. & Lya Paola Sierra S., 2016. "Does Industrial Employment React to Movements in the Real Exchange Rate? An Empirical Analysis for Colombia, 2000-2010," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 53(1), pages 39-60, December.
    13. Willem THORBECKE, 2017. "A Yen for Change: The strong yen and the Japanese automobile industry," Discussion papers 17005, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Onatunji Olufemi, 2019. "Do real exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on trade balance in Nigeria? Evidence from Non-linear ARDL Model," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 11(1), pages 14-23, June.
    15. Willem THORBECKE & Nimesh SALIKE & CHEN Chen, 2020. "Product Complexity, Exports, and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Japanese Chemical Industry," Discussion papers 20085, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Cuevas, Víctor M., 2010. "The dynamics of Mexican manufacturing exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    17. Enrique Montes U. & Aarón Garavito & María del Pilar Esguerra, 2010. "Venezuela como destino de las exportaciones colombianas: Evolución reciente y efecto sobre el panorama exportador y las firmas colombianas," Borradores de Economia 7484, Banco de la Republica.
    18. Willyam Cáceres Rodríguez & Omaira Inés Agudelo Cely2 & Ricardo Alonso Tejedor Estupiñán3, 2018. "Las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico en Boyacá - Colombia 1980-2015," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 37(65), pages 175-211, February.
    19. Lora, Eduardo, 2012. "Las reformas estructurales en América Latina: Qué se ha reformado y cómo medirlo (Versión actualizada)," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4086, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Willem THORBECKE, 2021. "East Asian and European Firms: Comrades or Competitors," Discussion papers 21098, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asa de cambio real; exportaciones; importaciones; comercio internacional;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000122:015662. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valor Público EAFIT - Centro de estudios e incidencia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cieafco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.