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Un modelo RSDAIDS para las importaciones de madera de Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para Colombia

  • Mauricio Alviar Ramirez

    ()

  • Medardo Restrepo Patiño
  • Santiago Gallón Gómez

Este trabajo presenta los resultados más importantes de un modelo de demanda de importaciones de productos maderables y sus implicaciónes para Colombia considerando el período 1980 1999. El modelo teórico usado es el desarrollado por Deaton y Muellbauer en 1980, denominado An Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Este modelo permite estimar funciones de demanda de importaciones y, al mismo tiempo, permite el cálculo de las elasticidades precio e ingreso de los diferentes tipos de producto que participan en un determinado mercado. La metodología de estimación está definida por el modelo denominado Seemingly Unrelated Regresión (SUR). El estudio muestra, de un lado, que Colombia, a pesar de tener un potencial forestal muy considerable aún está lejos de aparecer en las estadísticas internacionales como país exportador de maderas. De otro lado, si Colombia decidiera desarrollar el sector forestal, se enfrentaría a una competencia muy fuerte representada fundamentalmente por Canadá, y algunos países asiáticos. Las elasticidades muestran cómo, en el caso de la madera en tronco, la mayoría de los productos (madera en tronco por países) se comportan como bienes complementarios. Los signos de las elasticidades son los esperados, lo que permite concluir que el modelo se ajusta bastante bien a los datos.

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File URL: http://www.udea.edu.co/portal/page/portal/bibliotecaSedesDependencias/unidadesAcademicas/FacultadCienciasEconomicas/ElementosDiseno/Documentos/BorradoresEconomia/BorradCIE_3.pdf
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Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE in its series BORRADORES DEL CIE with number 003687.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 20 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000099:003687
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  1. Henneberry, Shida Rastegari & Piewthongngam, Kullapapruk & Qiang, Han, 1999. "Consumer Food Safety Concerns And Fresh Produce Consumption," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
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