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La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Esteban Carranza
  • Alejandra González
  • Natalia Serna

Abstract

En este documento estudiamos la interacción entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana durante la última década. Nuestro estudio descriptivo se basa en un panel detallado de producción y valor agregado a nivel de producto industrial, con información adicional del volumen, valor y tasa de cambio bilateral por producto y por país de destino/origen de las exportaciones e importaciones. La riqueza del panel permite la estimación de correlaciones condicionales en un conjunto amplio de controles, incluyendo efectos fijos a nivel de producto, tiempo y país de destino/origen, que por lo tanto absorbe patrones complejos de heterogeneidad no observada. Nuestros resultados muestran una correlación positiva y robusta entre el valor agregado y las exportaciones industriales, la cual es consistente con nociones convencionales sobre el comportamiento de las firmas industriales en economías abiertas. Encontramos además que las importaciones y el valor agregado de la producción nacional de cada producto tienen una correlación nula o positiva que contradice los temores de una posible sustitución sistemática entre producción doméstica e importaciones. Nuestros resultados muestran además patrones de correlación entre comercio exterior y algunas otras variables relevantes como la tasa de cambio real y nominal. Caracterizamos además los efectos del comercio con Venezuela y mostramos que este ha tenido poco efecto sobre el desempeño de largo plazo de la industria.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," Borradores de Economia 11129, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011129
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Naomi N Griffin, 2015. "Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia’s Manufacturing Sector: Exchange Rate or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 2015/097, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industria; comercio exterior; valor agregado; tasa de cambio.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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