IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/011129.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Esteban Carranza

    ()

  • Alejandra González

    ()

  • Natalia Serna

    ()

Abstract

En este documento estudiamos la interacción entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana durante la última década. Nuestro estudio descriptivo se basa en un panel detallado de producción y valor agregado a nivel de producto industrial, con información adicional del volumen, valor y tasa de cambio bilateral por producto y por país de destino/origen de las exportaciones e importaciones. La riqueza del panel permite la estimación de correlaciones condicionales en un conjunto amplio de controles, incluyendo efectos fijos a nivel de producto, tiempo y país de destino/origen, que por lo tanto absorbe patrones complejos de heterogeneidad no observada. Nuestros resultados muestran una correlación positiva y robusta entre el valor agregado y las exportaciones industriales, la cual es consistente con nociones convencionales sobre el comportamiento de las firmas industriales en economías abiertas. Encontramos además que las importaciones y el valor agregado de la producción nacional de cada producto tienen una correlación nula o positiva que contradice los temores de una posible sustitución sistemática entre producción doméstica e importaciones. Nuestros resultados muestran además patrones de correlación entre comercio exterior y algunas otras variables relevantes como la tasa de cambio real y nominal. Caracterizamos además los efectos del comercio con Venezuela y mostramos que este ha tenido poco efecto sobre el desempeño de largo plazo de la industria.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Esteban Carranza & Alejandra González & Natalia Serna, 2014. "La relación entre la producción y el comercio exterior de la industria manufacturera colombiana (2000-2010)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_806.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:wsi:wschap:9789814749589_0003 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    3. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez & Luisa Fernanda Silva, 2001. "Exportaciones No Tradicionales En Colombia Y Sus Determinantes," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 19(39), pages 73-114, June.
    4. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    5. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    6. Adolfo Meisel Roca & Carmen Helena Botero Arboleda, 1988. "Funciones De Oferta De Las Exportaciones Menores Colombianas," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 7(13), pages 5-26, June.
    7. Mauricio Alviar Ramirez & Medardo Restrepo Patiño & Santiago Gallón Gómez, 2002. "Un modelo RSDAIDS para las importaciones de madera de Estados Unidos y sus implicaciones para Colombia," Borradores del CIE 003687, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE.
    8. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan & Lawrence H. Officer, 2017. "Prices of Tradable and Nontradable Goods in the Demand for Total Imports," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 3, pages 105-123 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Beenstock, Michael & Lavi, Yaakov & Ribon, Sigal, 1994. "The supply and demand for exports in Israel," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 333-350, August.
    10. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    11. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    12. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    13. Koshal, Rajindar K. & Shukla, Vishwa S. & Koirala, Govinda P., 1992. "Demand and supply of Indian exports: A simultaneous equation approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 73-83.
    14. Xiaohui Liu & Peter Burridge & P. J. N. Sinclair, 2002. "Relationships between economic growth, foreign direct investment and trade: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1433-1440.
    15. Fernando Mesa & María Isabel Cock & Angela Patricia Jiménez, 1999. "Evaluación teórica y empírica de las exportaciones no tradicionales en Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    17. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2003. "Estimating exports and imports demand for Manufactured goods: The role of FDI," European Economy Group Working Papers 22, European Economy Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Torres García & Thomas Goda & Santiago Sanchez Gonzalez & Adriana Romero Villanueva, 2017. "Efectos diferenciales de la tasa de cambio real sobre el comercio internacional en Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo CIEF 015662, Universidad EAFIT.
    2. Naomi N Griffin, 2015. "Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia’s Manufacturing Sector; Exchange Rate or Structural?," IMF Working Papers 15/97, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industria; comercio exterior; valor agregado; tasa de cambio.;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:011129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.